Russia positions nuclear warheads in Belarus

On May 21, Russia transferred tactical nuclear warheads to the field positions of an Iskander-M missile brigade inside Belarus. The warheads stayed. Both defence ministries released footage of Belarusian crews loading mobile launchers and dispersing to concealed firing positions (Euronews, Euromaidanpress). Whether the warheads contained actual fissile material remains impossible to verify independently. Both governments claim they were real.

Tactical nuclear warheads are normally stored in reinforced bunkers, physically separated from the missiles that carry them. Assembly happens only immediately before use. Moving warheads to a brigade's operational firing positions erases that buffer. Russia closed that gap in full public view, during exercises involving tens of thousands of troops, then left the warheads in place.

The Baltic Stress Test

The nuclear deployment capped two weeks of escalating pressure on NATO's northeastern flank. On May 20, a drone from Belarusian airspace entered Lithuania and triggered the country's first nationwide shelter alert since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The president and members of parliament were evacuated. Vilnius airport shut down. NATO jets scrambled. The drone was never found.

Latvia absorbed a harder blow. A drone crash near Rēzekne on May 7 exposed air defence gaps so severe they brought down the government. Prime Minister Siliņa fired her defence minister over the failure. When his party left the coalition, she resigned on May 14. Russia's foreign intelligence service (SVR) then named specific Latvian military bases and threatened retaliation. Latvia became the first NATO member whose government collapsed in direct connection with drone incursions from the east.

Tallinn-based defence analysts have described the combined sequence as a "mass disruption weapon." Whether Moscow deliberately synchronised nuclear deployment, drone penetrations, and intelligence threats, or simply exploited overlapping crises, is an open question. The result was concrete: three Baltic capitals shaken within two weeks, one allied government gone.

Europe's Fractured Deterrence

France has offered a European answer. At a summit in Gdańsk in April, President Macron extended French nuclear deterrence to Poland and seven other allies. It was the first time a French president opened the country's nuclear umbrella beyond France itself. Launch authority, however, stays with the French president alone. The commitment lasts as long as the political will of whoever holds that office.

Germany is preparing for a different deadline. Inspector General Breuer, head of Germany's armed forces (Bundeswehr), has warned publicly that Russia could test NATO with large-scale military operations by 2029. Berlin plans to sharply increase defence spending before then. But a planned deployment of US long-range missiles to Germany has quietly collapsed. Those weapons would have filled a gap left since the INF Treaty (which banned intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe) ended in 2019. No replacement has been announced.

The American military footprint in Europe is shrinking. The Pentagon is cutting European combat brigades from four to three. President Trump announced 5,000 additional troops for Poland, but Polish Deputy Defence Minister Tomczyk described the situation as requiring a "diplomatic offensive," signalling that no agreement has been reached. Three days before that announcement, NATO's supreme allied commander confirmed troops were already being pulled from Europe.

NATO Secretary General Rutte warned of "devastating consequences" for any nuclear use. The EU, at the ongoing NPT Review Conference (where signatories to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty assess compliance), called on Moscow and Minsk to "reverse this decision". Neither body announced concrete posture changes.

Lukashenko holds no launch codes. Moscow retains sole authority over the warheads. What Belarus provides is geography: from Belarusian soil, the Iskander-M covers Warsaw, Vilnius, and Riga. No one outside Moscow knows how many warheads are there, or for how long.