Ukraine’s €2.5 billion jet deal bypasses France

Ukraine will buy 20 Gripen E/F fighter jets from Sweden's Saab for €2.5 billion. Sweden separately donates 16 older Gripen C/D aircraft worth €1.9 billion. Announced May 28 at Saab's Linköping facility, this is the largest single weapons deal financed through EU borrowing, and it goes to Stockholm, bypassing France's Rafale and the collapsed Franco-German FCAS programme.

A Grant Dressed as a Loan

The purchase runs through the EU's Ukraine Support Loan, a €90 billion credit line adopted in February 2026 under enhanced cooperation. That mechanism lets a group of willing member states act when unanimity fails. In this case, 24 of 27 participated, sidestepping Hungary's veto. Of the total, €60 billion goes to military procurement and €30 billion to budget support.

The terms are generous. Ukraine's finance ministry confirms that the EU covers all interest. Principal repayment is tied exclusively to Russian reparations, money that may never arrive. In practice, this is a grant wearing the legal costume of a loan. The European Commission keeps approval over each weapons purchase before releasing funds. Drones come first, in June. The Gripen deal would be the largest single transaction by far.

FCAS Collapses, Saab Steps In

Two weeks before the Gripen announcement, Airbus Defence CEO Michael Schöllhorn named Saab as a possible partner for next-generation European combat aircraft in a Stockholm speech. FCAS (the Future Combat Air System), the Franco-German sixth-generation fighter programme, is effectively dead as a manned project. Dassault CEO Éric Trappier ended negotiations with Airbus in April. Airbus now proposes building two separate fighters for French and German requirements.

Saab already has a foothold in German defence: a €1.2 billion contract for its Arexis electronic warfare system on the Eurofighter. The Ukraine deal offers combat validation Saab badly needs. The Gripen has never been used in a shooting war. If it performs over Ukraine, Saab's pitch to Airbus gets much stronger.

Saab CEO Micael Johansson says no formal discussions with Airbus are underway. The pull is visible anyway.

What Hasn't Been Solved

No formal contract has been signed. The donation of 16 C/Ds is conditional on the E/F purchase closing. The Gripen E runs on a General Electric F414 engine, so every export requires US approval under ITAR (International Traffic in Arms Regulations). That approval has not been publicly confirmed.

Production is another constraint. Saab builds roughly 15 Gripens per year and plans to scale to 20-30. The framework agreement covers 100-150 aircraft total. At maximum output, that's five years of production, assuming every other customer waits.

The deal's most consequential element may be the Meteor missile. RUSI analyst Justin Bronk argues it is the only Western air-to-air missile with enough range to threaten Su-34s launching glide bombs 60-100 km behind the front line. Sweden's defence minister named Meteor in the weapons package, but integration on the older C/D airframes remains unconfirmed.

France co-produces the Meteor. Its Rafale arguably fits EU-origin procurement rules better than the American-engined Gripen. Yet no senior French official has publicly commented on EU funds financing a Swedish competitor. Paris spent years building European defence instruments. The first major purchase they enabled goes to Stockholm.

Two concrete unknowns will determine whether this deal closes: whether Washington grants ITAR approval for the GE engine, and whether Saab's single production line can deliver fast enough.