Berlin talks sideline EU on Ukraine peace

Russia fired a nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile at the outskirts of Kyiv on May 23-24, its third wartime use of the weapon. Within 48 hours, Ukraine's chief negotiator was in the German chancellery with the national security advisers of three European powers, drafting the outline of a peace process the United States has abandoned.

The Bombardment and the Refusal

The strike was the largest Russian bombardment of 2026: approximately 90 missiles, including 36 ballistic, and 600 drones targeted Kyiv, killing at least four and injuring around 100. The Institute for the Study of War estimated the package cost Moscow roughly $361 million (ISW). Russia's Foreign Ministry then ordered all foreign diplomats to leave Kyiv, declaring it would begin "systematic strikes against Ukrainian military-industrial facilities" (Al Jazeera).

No European government complied. France's foreign ministry spokesperson called the demand "a new intimidation" and said Paris would not evacuate (Le Figaro). In Berlin, the Political Director of the Auswärtiges Amt (Germany's foreign ministry), a senior but sub-ministerial official, summoned Russian ambassador Nechayev, choosing calibrated resolve over full ministerial escalation (Deutschlandfunk). Poland warned that any strike on its embassy would be treated as "a deliberate act of aggression" (Polsat News). Over 50 countries condemned Russia at the UN Security Council (Kyiv Post, UN).

Washington struck a different tone. Secretary of State Rubio did not condemn the strikes and observed that Kyiv has been "a very dangerous place" (RFE/RL). He confirmed American peace talks are "frozen."

The E3 Moves Fast

On May 26, Ukraine's chief negotiator Rustem Umerov met in Berlin with the E3, a format grouping Germany, France, and the United Kingdom through their national security advisers (Ukrinform). Germany's Günter Sautter hosted. Chancellor Merz was absent, a deliberate signal of caution at the highest level.

The E3 has no treaty, no secretariat, no legal mandate. Born in 2003 to negotiate with Iran over its nuclear programme, it groups Europe's three permanent UN Security Council members. Brexit didn't end British participation, because the format operates entirely outside EU structures. Its advantage is speed: where the EU's Common Foreign and Security Policy (the bloc's framework for joint diplomacy) typically requires unanimity among 27 member states and weeks of coordination, the E3 can meet in days. Zelensky proposed formalising an "E3 plus Ukraine" channel on May 20 (newsukraine.rbc.ua).

Speed Costs Legitimacy

That speed comes at a price. Poland, Ukraine's largest regional military supporter, has no seat. Neither does Italy, the EU's third-largest economy. Warsaw's objection is structural: its size and geography make it a natural participant in any negotiation between Europe, Kyiv, and Moscow (Rzeczpospolita). E3 participants counter that smaller groups negotiate faster. No public protest from Polish officials has targeted the May 26 meeting specifically, but the underlying tension is visible.

The divide runs deeper than format. France and Italy favour opening diplomatic engagement with Moscow. Germany, Poland, and the Baltic states resist, arguing that talks before Russian withdrawal would reward aggression (Euronews). EU foreign ministers discussed appointing a formal Special Representative for Ukraine at the Gymnich meeting (an informal ministerial gathering, no binding decisions) in Limassol on May 27-28, but the EU's spokesperson dampened expectations: an envoy is appropriate only "once Russia has demonstrated a genuine willingness to end the war" (EEAS).

With that formal track stalled, the E3's informal speed is substituting for the EU's institutional process. The states most exposed to Russian aggression, Poland and the Baltics, remain excluded from the format negotiating their security. Poland arms Ukraine's frontline. Italy funds reconstruction. Neither sits where peace terms are being drafted.