E3 backs peace talks as NB8 scales drones

Within 48 hours, Volodymyr Zelenskyy attended two European summits that offered sharply different paths to ending the war. On June 7 in London, the E3 (France, Germany, and the UK, meeting outside formal EU structures) endorsed his proposal for direct talks with Moscow (Élysée Palace, Euromaidanpress). Two days later in Tallinn, the NB8 (the informal Nordic-Baltic bloc of eight states, from Iceland to Lithuania) signed drone co-production deals with the same Zelenskyy and pledged an "irreversible path" to NATO membership (Danish PM's Office). One group wants to open a channel to Moscow. The other wants to arm Ukraine until Russia concedes.

The Diplomatic Bet

The E3's joint statement set five conditions for talks. These include holding the current front line, deploying international peacekeepers to Ukraine, and freezing Russian assets until reparations are paid. Macron has pushed this framing for months, arguing Europeans must lead any peace process rather than cede it to Washington. "This is an architecture of peace and security for Europeans, given the geography," he told reporters (Le Figaro). Berlin backs the approach more cautiously, calculating that Russia is "in a position of weakness" after months of Ukrainian drone strikes on its infrastructure (FAZ).

But Putin rejected Zelenskyy's open letter on May 31. The E3 has a framework and no interlocutor.

The Military Answer

In Tallinn, the NB8 made no mention of dialogue with Moscow. Their joint declaration committed all nine signatories to defence-industrial co-production and called for opening all six EU accession negotiating clusters (the grouped chapters of EU law that candidate countries must adopt) by July.

Concrete deals followed. Latvia signed a drone technology-transfer agreement with Ukraine. Norway committed roughly €110 million for maritime drones under its Nansen Programme (Norwegian Government). Finland confirmed a co-production framework covering drones, technology exchange, and deployment of Ukrainian military specialists to Finnish territory (MTV Uutiset). Ukraine is no longer positioned as an aid recipient here. It is a technology partner whose battlefield-tested drone expertise the NB8 wants to buy.

Poland's Empty Chair

Poland, Ukraine's largest neighbour and main logistics hub, was shut out of both summits. Prime Minister Tusk declared that "no arrangements in which Poland does not participate will be respected by us" and proposed expanding the E3 into an "E5" with Poland and Italy (Wiadomości WP).

Warsaw's exclusion came down to hard military logic. Poland refused to deploy troops to Ukraine, and peacekeeping is one of the E3's five conditions. A former Polish ambassador was blunt: "The moment Poland declared it would send no soldiers was the moment its chances of joining fell to zero" (Onet). The price of entry to Europe's peace architecture is willingness to put forces on the ground.

Roads to Ankara

Both tracks converge on the NATO summit in Ankara, July 7-8. The NB8 declaration calls on allies to deliver air-defence commitments there. The E3 has pledged further coordination. Whether Europe's twin strategies reinforce each other or cancel each other out depends on something neither summit could produce: a signal from Putin that he sees the diplomatic channel as anything other than European noise filling the void left by Washington's pivot to the Middle East.

Zelenskyy appeared comfortable at both tables. At Ankara, European capitals will have to pick one.