EU’s €3 duty cuts parcels, not cargo

Slovenia's customs authority processed 8,955 low-value import shipments in July, roughly 40% fewer than in June (24ur). Belgium, a far larger logistics gateway, saw a near-identical drop: e-commerce parcels through Liège Airport fell 41% month-on-month, and customs declarations in the Liège zone were down 67% versus June (RTBF, La Libre). These are among the first hard numbers on what happened after the EU started charging a flat duty on cheap imports.

The charge is simple. Since 1 July, every parcel worth up to €150 sent from outside the EU to an EU buyer owes a flat €3 customs duty per product category — meaning per type of good in the box (EUR-Lex, Ship24). Five identical T-shirts count as one charge. A mixed parcel with a phone case, a charger and sunglasses triggers three (CEC Spain). The duty sits on top of import VAT — the sales tax already owed when goods enter the EU — and replaces a longstanding exemption that let these goods in duty-free. Brussels designed it as a two-year bridge while a broader customs data system is built (EUR-Lex), as we covered when the measure and France's separate environmental surcharge took effect (To Brief).

Fewer parcels, not necessarily fewer goods

Belgium's own data complicates the picture. While small e-commerce parcels fell sharply at Liège, total cargo tonnage rose 4%. Shipments valued above €150 climbed 10% (Breakbulk News, L'Avenir). Fewer cheap parcels crossed the border, but more goods came through in other forms.

One explanation: sellers are bundling orders into larger batches that clear customs once, then get split for individual delivery inside the EU. Another: platforms like Shein and Temu are moving stock into European warehouses, so the later delivery to a buyer is an intra-EU shipment that never appears in these customs counts (Business Insider Polska).

Polish users, though, appear to have pulled back. Temu's Polish user base fell from 16.68 million in June to 13.6 million in July, a drop of more than 20%. AliExpress lost over 15% (RMF24, Puls Biznesu). These are audience numbers, not transaction records, but they suggest at least some of the border disruption reflects genuine demand change. Germany, the EU's largest consumer market, has published no comparable data.

A flat fee that hits cheapest purchases hardest

Belgium collected €42.5 million from the new duty in July alone (RTL, L'Avenir). EU-based retailers stand to benefit most: the old exemption let non-EU sellers ship goods in duty-free while European competitors bore full tax and compliance costs. That cost gap is now narrower.

Buyers of the cheapest goods lose. On a €5 item, the €3 duty alone adds more than half the price. Shein has already signalled it will raise European prices (Cinco Días). Because the charge is flat rather than percentage-based, it falls hardest on the cheapest purchases.

Large platforms hold an edge over smaller sellers, too. Shein and Temu can stock European warehouses, turning dutiable imports into duty-free deliveries within the EU. A small cross-border merchant cannot afford that shift (DHL). The policy closes some of the cost advantage non-EU sellers enjoyed, but it may tilt the market further toward platforms big enough to restructure around it.

The first month proves the duty changed how goods cross the EU border. It does not yet prove a demand collapse. Answering that question requires data that customs declarations alone cannot provide — transaction records from platforms, carrier volumes, and consumer spending figures that customs authorities, carriers and platforms have but have not yet released.