Magyar ends vetoes to claim €17 billion

Péter Magyar chose Poland for his first foreign trip as Hungary's prime minister. The itinerary — Kraków, Warsaw, Gdańsk, a stop to meet Lech Wałęsa — places the man who defeated Viktor Orbán in April's landslide squarely in Central Europe's democratic-recovery tradition, with Donald Tusk cast as mentor. Magyar has already unblocked several EU decisions Orbán held hostage for years. He has not changed most of the policies Orbán built.

The Transactional Reset

The institutional shift is concrete. Within days of taking office, Hungary dropped its veto on the EU's €90 billion loan to Ukraine and allowed the 20th sanctions package against Russia to pass. Foreign Minister Anita Orbán declared Budapest would stop using vetoes "as political theatre" (Kyiv Independent, Euronews). Under Viktor Orbán, Hungary had blocked or effectively blocked 21 European Council decisions. That record is now formally abandoned.

The prize: roughly €17 billion in frozen EU funds. Of that, €10.4 billion from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (the EU's post-pandemic investment programme) must be claimed by 31 August or it vanishes permanently. Magyar flew to Brussels on 29 April and aims to sign a deal with Commission President von der Leyen by late May. The Commission has signalled unusual flexibility, with officials telling Hungarian media there is "a real chance" of drawing down the full amount (Telex).

Same Policies, Different Manners

The policy continuity, however, is striking. Magyar told the Financial Times his government "would not change Hungary's position on military support for Ukraine" and would not abruptly sever ties with Russia (Magyar Tisza). Hungary still sends no weapons to Kyiv. Magyar promises to phase out Russian energy by 2035, a distant horizon that keeps Moscow as a supplier through this decade. On migration, he refuses the EU's mandatory solidarity mechanism (the rule requiring countries to either accept asylum seekers or pay), continuing Orbán's position almost word for word.

Czech analysts captured the paradox: Magyar represents "a change in tone, not necessarily in substance" (Seznam Zprávy). He has abandoned what Orbán used as leverage. He has not reversed what Orbán built as policy.

Fico Without a Partner

The clearest loser is Robert Fico. Slovakia's prime minister relied on Hungary as a structural partner for blocking EU decisions on sanctions and Ukraine. That partnership is functionally over. Fico, who visited Putin in Moscow on 9 May as the only sitting EU leader to do so, now faces isolation. Under EU majority voting rules, Slovakia's 5.5 million people cannot block decisions alone (Centre for European Reform).

On unanimity dossiers like foreign policy and sanctions, Fico retains a theoretical veto. But the European Parliament voted in April to request the Commission activate its tool for freezing funds over democratic backsliding against Bratislava (EU Observer). With roughly 20% of Slovak GDP tied to EU budget transfers, his room for confrontation has narrowed. His pragmatic response, quietly dropping Slovakia's block on the 20th sanctions package once the Druzhba oil pipeline resumed, signals a man calculating costs, not waging ideological war.

The Pattern Brussels Should Watch

The Visegrád Group (V4), the informal alliance of Poland, Hungary, Czechia and Slovakia, is the vehicle Magyar and Tusk want to revive. A Median poll for Czech public radio found 80% of Czech citizens support renewed cooperation. But the format only works if all four members share a baseline orientation, and Fico's Moscow visit sits uncomfortably beside Magyar's Warsaw pilgrimage.

The deeper test is whether Brussels has learned from Poland's experience. When Tusk took office in 2023, the Commission rushed to unfreeze funds before reforms were verified. Analysts at CEPS warn the same pattern is emerging: "political alignment, not verified compliance" driving the decision (CEPS). Magyar still has not signed the Special Tribunal for Russian aggression. Ukraine's EU accession remains blocked pending a Magyar-Zelenskyy meeting. The 27 reform milestones attached to the frozen funds are largely unmet.

Magyar has changed who Hungary cooperates with. What Hungary actually does looks, so far, remarkably similar. And €10.4 billion rides on a deadline ten weeks away.