Pentagon cuts US combat brigades in Europe

The Pentagon cut US combat brigades in Europe from four to three last week, returning ground forces to where they stood before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine (Stars and Stripes, Washington Examiner). Hours later, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he would send "5,000 additional troops to Poland." No operational details followed. The Pentagon referred reporters to the White House, which pointed them back to the social media post (Stars and Stripes). Poland's foreign minister Radosław Sikorski read the promise as "maintaining the presence of American troops more or less at the current level" (Notes from Poland).

The gap between headline and arithmetic defined the week NATO foreign ministers spent in Helsingborg, Sweden, preparing for July's summit in Ankara.

The Withdrawal Sequence

On May 1, Trump ordered 5,000 troops out of Germany. On May 13, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth canceled a 4,000-troop armored brigade rotation to Poland, with equipment already in transit and advance units on the ground (Breaking Defense, Politico). Army leaders told Congress they learned of the cancellation just days beforehand.

Then came reports that Trump phoned Hegseth to demand an explanation, angry that Poland had been targeted instead of a less cooperative ally. The "5,000 to Poland" Truth Social post followed. The simplest route would be to resume the rotation that was just scrapped.

Europe's overall rotational strength likely drops by around 5,000 troops. NATO's top military commander, SACEUR Alexus Grynkewich, confirmed that figure on May 19 and warned allies to "absolutely expect additional redeployments" (NATO). The Pentagon also quietly scaled down its commitments to the NATO Force Model, the classified framework where members pledge forces for wartime activation. Because this sidesteps formal troop caps set by US law, Congress cannot block it (Military Times).

Germany Takes the Hit

A pattern runs through the reshuffling. Allies who cooperated with Washington's military operations against Iran kept their forces. Those who pushed back lost them. Germany, whose chancellor Friedrich Merz publicly criticized Trump's Iran strategy, lost both soldiers and a planned deployment of Tomahawk cruise missiles. Poland, whose president Karol Nawrocki maintains a personal channel to Trump, got a social media reward (Der Spiegel).

Berlin absorbed the humiliation quietly. Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul reframed the withdrawal as a routine, "expected rotation" (Deutschlandfunk). Merz, who had publicly pushed to buy 400 US-made Tomahawk missiles, stopped raising the subject after Washington went silent on the purchase request. Germany is now exploring a joint venture for domestic cruise missile production (ZDF).

Estonia's foreign minister Margus Tsahkna voiced the broader allied frustration at Helsingborg: "Everything that concerns NATO deterrence and capabilities must happen in coordinated ways" (Estonian MFA). His objection was not to burden-sharing itself but to decisions taken without consulting the allies who bear the consequences.

Hormuz, Frigates, and the Race to Build

Secretary of State Marco Rubio added a second pressure point at Helsingborg, warning allies to prepare a "Plan B" for the Strait of Hormuz if Iran refuses to reopen the waterway. He framed the question as a test of NATO's value to Washington (NATO). France rejected the premise. "The North Atlantic Treaty applies to the North Atlantic," a Foreign Ministry spokesman said. "It is neither its purpose, nor the appropriate alliance for a subject in the Middle East" (Iran International).

The European response is moving from protest to procurement. Sweden signed a deal for four frigates from France's Naval Group, its largest military acquisition since the 1980s (Le Monde, Euronews). France has extended its nuclear deterrent umbrella to eight partner countries, with bilateral steering groups already running with Germany, Sweden, and Denmark (L'Éventail). Punitive withdrawals were designed to compel allied compliance. They are instead accelerating the European defense buildout that could make US leverage beside the point.