Romania risks €100 million to keep coal

Romania will keep three lignite power units running past the 31 August 2026 closure it promised Brussels in exchange for EU recovery money. On 28 August, the government approved a memorandum extending Craiova 1 and 2 until mid-2027 and Turceni 5 until early 2028 (Libertatea, Spotmedia). The same day, Portugal's minister Castro Almeida declared his country's recovery plan "totally concluded" (Observador, RTP). Same programme, same deadline, opposite results.

How the RRF pays, and why timing matters now

The RRF (Recovery and Resilience Facility, the EU's post-pandemic spending programme worth hundreds of billions across member states) does not reimburse costs. Governments agree to specific reforms and investments upfront. They prove delivery, and only then does money flow (EUR-Lex, Council of the EU). Romania committed to passing a law locking in coal phase-out and physically withdrawing coal and lignite capacity by 31 August 2026 (Agerpres).

Romania broke both promises. Parliament adopted amendments in August saying coal units can close only after replacement low-carbon capacity is built and running (Agerpres). That reverses the coal-closure law the Commission had already assessed and paid for. And the government's decision to keep Turceni and Craiova producing electricity separately breaks the physical shutdown commitment. Earlier this year, Brussels had already rejected a scheme where Romania reduced licensed capacity on paper without shutting anything down (Economica.net).

Under Article 24 of the RRF regulation, the enforcement path is not a fine. The Commission suspends all or part of a payment, gives the government time to fix the problem, and permanently reduces the amount if the breach stands (EUR-Lex). Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan put the coal-delay cost at up to €100 million (Economica.net), though how Brussels arrived at that figure remains unclear. At any earlier stage, Romania could have corrected the breach and resubmitted. At the final deadline, that option disappears: Commission closing guidance requires all measures completed by 31 August, final payment requests filed by September, and the programme legally settled by December (European Commission). A suspension now becomes a permanent loss.

Portugal did not deliver perfectly. It kept Brussels inside the process.

Portugal declared its €21.9 billion recovery plan complete and is preparing its tenth and final payment request, having already received about 79% of its allocation (ECO, Portuguese government). Getting there required compromises. Lisbon reprogrammed about €516 million among investments and eliminated 85 milestones, mostly through administrative mergers Brussels approved before the deadline (Portuguese government, Sol). Health and housing targets were scaled back. Portugal adjusted with permission. Romania changed terms on its own.

Who pays for keeping the coal running

Inside Romania, the short-run winners are the lignite plants, their workers, and politicians in Oltenia's coal basin who avoid an abrupt shutdown before replacement gas and solar capacity exists (Libertatea). The losers are harder to see but no less real. If Brussels cuts payments, projects funded by the recovery plan lose money. Romanian taxpayers cover the gap through higher borrowing or spending cuts (ZF).

The case matters beyond Romania because other coal-dependent states, Poland and Bulgaria among them, still carry RRF energy commitments of their own (Euronews Poland, Investor.bg). If Brussels lets a unilateral delay pass at the finish line, the RRF becomes easier to treat as negotiable after payment. If it cuts Romania's allocation, local taxpayers fund the political choice to keep coal running. The Commission's exact calculation remains unclear, but the precedent is binary: agreed milestones either cost money when broken, or they don't.