Turkey eyes slice of €150bn EU defense fund

EU foreign-policy chief Kaja Kallas and senior enlargement and migration officials flew to Ankara on 30 June to discuss trade, migration, visas and security with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. The same week, UN envoy María Ángela Holguín postponed her Brussels meeting on Cyprus until after the NATO summit. The two events are linked. Turkey is using its return to Cyprus settlement talks as leverage across a set of EU files, and Europe's member states disagree on how much of that leverage to accept.

Ankara's Shopping List

Turkey has bundled several demands into one negotiation. Diplomatic sources said Fidan pressed for removal of 2019 restrictive measures (sanctions tied to Turkey's disputed offshore drilling near Cyprus), a formal EU-Turkey Partnership Council, customs-union upgrade talks and visa liberalisation (Hurriyet Daily News). The official joint statement confirmed discussions on customs-union modernisation, visa-liberalisation dialogue, border management, energy and new high-level talks before year-end (MFA Türkiye).

President Erdoğan added the most politically charged demand: Turkey's inclusion in European defence initiatives, including SAFE, the EU's new €150 billion defence-spending instrument (Marine & Océans/AFP, Council). Access to EU-backed defence finance is the most sensitive item on the table. It would channel European money toward a non-member's defence industry, and any single EU government can block it in Council, where defence decisions require unanimity.

Each item has a different lock. Customs-union modernisation needs a Council negotiating mandate; the Commission proposed one in 2016 and the Council has never adopted it (EU trade policy). Visa-free travel depends on Turkey meeting benchmark conditions set years ago (Commission). Technical dialogues on migration or trade can resume with minimal friction.

Who Can Block What

Cyprus and Greece want every EU-Turkey file conditional on Cyprus progress. Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides and European Council President António Costa agreed that EU-Turkey relations cannot advance separately from the Cyprus question (Cyprus Mail). Greek Deputy Foreign Minister Tasos Chatzivasileiou drew the red line: no access to EU defence funding for a country that maintains a casus belli (a standing threat of war over Greek territorial waters) against an EU member and occupies part of its territory (Proto Thema). Prime Minister Mitsotakis stressed "absolute coordination" between Athens and Nicosia (Newsit).

Their leverage is real but uneven. On the customs union and defence access, Athens and Nicosia can block decisions in Council. On visa processing, trade dialogue and migration cooperation, they cannot stop every channel.

That gap is where other capitals come in. Kallas described Turkey as "a key partner on security, migration and energy" before the Ankara visit (Euronews). Italy's Giorgia Meloni discussed migration and Libya with Erdoğan ahead of NATO, with Italian reporting suggesting Rome prefers flexible arrangements over rigid Cyprus-linked deadlines (Il Tempo). Bulgaria, whose border with Turkey became a full Schengen external land frontier in January 2025, needs Ankara's cooperation on migration and transit (Council).

These governments are not backing Ankara's Cyprus position. But they need Turkey on migration, energy or transport, so they resist making every EU-Turkey file wait for a Cyprus breakthrough.

Before the UN Meeting

A proposed summer meeting under UN auspices would bring the two Cypriot leaders together with Greece, Turkey and the UK to test whether formal negotiations can restart. The last attempt, at Crans-Montana in 2017, collapsed (UN report S/2017/814, Cyprus Mail). The core divide has not moved. Greek Cypriots insist on a bizonal, bicommunal federation. Turkey and the Turkish Cypriot side push for sovereign equality or a two-state framework. Holguín's postponed Brussels meeting, expected in mid-July, is meant to prepare the ground.

The European Council's (where heads of state set EU direction) formula says EU-Turkey relations should advance in a "gradual, proportionate and reversible" way, with Cyprus progress in the frame (European Council). That language was designed to hold both camps together. The record so far shows the EU can keep Cyprus in the formula on paper. But only some parts of the relationship are actually stoppable, and Turkey is betting on the parts that aren't.