70 tankers daily brave ungoverned Hormuz

Tankers are moving through the Strait of Hormuz again. On one recent day, 70 vessels transited the passage, up from fewer than ten during the worst months of the US-Iran confrontation (CNN). The ceasefire holds. The route does not. Iran, the United States, insurers and shipowners still work from different definitions of safe passage, and Europe is stuck insuring cargo, deploying warships and absorbing political risk through a strait no one actually governs.

Competing Instructions, No Arbiter

Iran demands prior approval and routing close to its coast. The US and Western insurers prefer a corridor near Oman, under American air cover. A shipowner following one set of instructions risks liability with the other (Rzeczpospolita, EFN). Iran has threatened vessels that sail without permission (Omni).

More traffic does not mean safe traffic. War-risk insurance premiums remain around eight times pre-conflict levels, and major carriers still avoid the region (Business Insider Polska).

Lloyd's Market Association stressed that the drop in vessel numbers reflects safety concerns, not a lack of available cover (LMA). War cover can still be bought, but at steep premiums and amid uncertainty over mine clearance and port operations (S&P Global). The European Commission said crude supply was stable for now, cushioned by stocks and alternative routes, but that Gulf flows would take time to reach Europe (European Commission).

No Command Centre

Europe's deeper problem: no one owns the mission. EU foreign-policy chief Kaja Kallas reportedly said there was "no appetite" to extend Aspides (the EU's Red Sea naval escort operation) to cover Hormuz (Reuters). NATO Secretary General Rutte described a France-UK coalition, not a NATO-run operation (Rutte remarks). The UN and the International Maritime Organization (the UN's shipping body) are coordinating safety and evacuating stranded seafarers, not running combat escorts (UN News). No one has said who commands a European Hormuz mission, what law it operates under, or when escorts could use force.

Individual states are acting anyway. Denmark's parliament approved roughly 10 personnel for a European-led effort: staff officers, drone operators, interpreters (BT, Copenhagen Post). The Netherlands redirected the frigate Zr.Ms. De Ruyter toward the strait (Defensie, Stars and Stripes). The E5 group (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK) confirmed willingness to participate "as soon as conditions allow" (Élysée). Real assets, real parliamentary votes, no agreed mandate.

Romania shows how states get drawn onto the escalation map without joining any Hormuz mission. After Rutte told Fox News that Bucharest had reduced commercial flights to accommodate US tanker aircraft, Iran accused Romania and Italy of complicity in "aggression" (HotNews). Romania denied being party to the conflict, citing existing bilateral agreements (News.ro). Bases and airspace can make a country a target before any parliament votes on deployment.

The Missing Traffic Rule

US and Iranian negotiators are expected in Doha on 30 June for technical talks on sustaining the ceasefire. Even if those hold, the questions that determine whether Hormuz is actually usable stay open. Chatham House assessed demining as difficult and dependent on a durable ceasefire (Chatham House). No public mine map exists. No routing framework has replaced the competing Iranian and American instructions. No European parliament has been told what escalation risks its government accepts by contributing ships, hosting aircraft or insuring cargo through the strait.

The water is open. The rules are not. That gap is Europe's operating environment until someone agrees on who controls safe passage.