Greece signs $9 billion US gas deal

Atlantic SEE, a Greek energy trader backed by construction group AKTOR and state gas company DEPA Commercial, has signed a $9 billion package of long-term LNG (liquefied natural gas) supply contracts with US exporter Venture Global (ProtoThema, Newsit). The centrepiece: 1 million tonnes of LNG per year for 20 years starting in 2030, with additional volumes earmarked for Albania and Bosnia (Venture Global). The contract gives Greece's long-discussed Vertical Corridor, a chain of pipelines meant to carry gas from Greek terminals northward through the Balkans, something it has never had: a committed supplier.

From map to gas route

The idea is straightforward. American gas gets liquefied, shipped by tanker to Greek terminals like Alexandroupolis, regasified (turned back into gas), then pumped north through pipeline links into Bulgaria and Romania. From there the corridor could extend to Hungary, Slovakia, Moldova and Ukraine (Antena3).

The corridor currently handles about 5 bcm per year (billion cubic metres, a standard measure of gas flow), with upgrades aiming for roughly 10 bcm/year (Adevărul). Atlantic SEE's 1.5 bcm/year is not enough to fill the pipe, but it is large enough for pipeline operators and lenders to treat as an anchor booking. Bulgaria's grid operator Bulgartransgaz is already responding: cutting transit tariffs by 11% and expanding capacity from Greece by 50% in its next auction (24 Chasa).

Why now? The European Commission proposed phasing out Russian gas and oil imports by the end of 2027, banning EU operators from trading Russian LNG from that date (European Commission, Gas Processing News). If Russian volumes are legally pushed out, alternative entry points rise in value.

Greece gains first, neighbours wait

Greece is the clear early winner. Venture Global also holds roughly 25% of regasification capacity at Alexandroupolis (Venture Global), tying US supply directly to Greek infrastructure.

Bulgaria earns transit fees only if gas is physically booked through its grid. Two-thirds of Atlantic SEE's volumes, 1 bcm for Albania and 0.5 bcm for Bosnia, may flow through western Balkan routes instead (Newsit).

Romania is both transit node and competitor. Its Neptun Deep Black Sea project could produce about 8 bcm/year at peak (OMV Petrom), nearly matching the corridor's full target capacity. Bucharest may treat Greek LNG as backup, not its main supply.

Hungary imports about 80% of its gas (Telex). A credible southern route gives Budapest another supplier to bargain with. It does not guarantee cheaper bills.

Contract signed, price unknown

Every cubic metre that reaches a household in Budapest or Bucharest passes through a cost stack: the LNG commodity price, transatlantic shipping, regasification fees at the terminal, pipeline tariffs through each transit country, and retail margins. Nobody involved has disclosed the pricing formula or the take-or-pay terms (the minimum volumes the buyer must pay for whether or not they use the gas).

Market prices suggest the floor is not cheap. Spanish LNG spot prices sat around €42–44/MWh in late June (MIBGAS). Hungarian analysts see the TTF (Europe's main gas benchmark) holding at 25–32 €/MWh for years, partly because delayed Qatari export expansion keeps global supply tight (Portfolio).

Timing adds pressure. Venture Global volumes start in 2030. The EU wants Russian gas gone by end-2027. That three-year gap must be filled by spot buying at whatever price the market sets. And Greece is not the only country building gateway ambitions: Poland plans three LNG terminals with over 20 bcm/year of regasification capacity by 2030 (GAZ-SYSTEM).

The $9 billion contract gives the Vertical Corridor a commercial anchor it never had. Whether it actually brings down energy costs for Southeast Europe, or just changes who sells expensive gas, depends on terms nobody has yet made public.