Hormuz ceasefire faces a six-month minefield

Iran and the United States are closing in on a 60-day ceasefire framework for the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage carrying roughly 20% of the world's seaborne oil. Brent crude dropped 4.5% on the news, to around $98.83 per barrel (n-tv). But three months after Iran shut the strait in retaliation for US-Israeli strikes, the physical logistics are far behind the diplomacy. The gap between a signed deal and restored energy supply is measured in months, possibly years, and European consumers and taxpayers will fill it.

840 Ships and a Minefield

A ceasefire only starts the logistical cleanup. Over 600 tankers are stranded inside the Persian Gulf, with another 240 waiting outside, according to Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser (CNBC). Vessels that rerouted around Africa's Cape of Good Hope added roughly 3,800 nautical miles per leg, cutting effective fleet capacity by about a third (straits.live). Those ships can't teleport back. They must finish their current voyages first.

Then there are the mines. The Pentagon told Congress that full clearance could take six months (Washington Post). Iran itself cannot account for all the mines it deployed (IndexBox). Until the seabed is certified safe, insurers won't lower their rates. War risk premiums (the surcharge insurers add for ships entering conflict zones) jumped from 0.125% of hull value to as high as 5% within days of the February strikes (Property Casualty 360). As Insurance Business Magazine put it: "A ceasefire won't reopen the insurance market — not yet" (Insurance Business Magazine).

Crude may reach importing markets in two to six weeks. Refined products take longer because Gulf refineries need weeks to restart. The IEA expects the global economy to return to its pre-conflict trajectory only by Q4 2026 at the earliest (Gulf News).

Who Actually Pays for This

Romania's inflation hit 10.71% in April, with fuel prices up roughly 35% year-on-year (Agerpres). Within the eurozone (the 20 countries sharing the euro), Spain recorded the highest inflation at 3.2%, with energy accounting for over 60% of that price pressure (Merca2). Dutch diesel reached €2.37 per litre, the most expensive in the EU (IRU).

Shell reported Q1 profits of €4.84 billion, up 20% year-on-year, with an estimated €1 billion tied to the Hormuz crisis (NPO Radio 1). TotalEnergies posted a 51% jump in net profit (Made-in.be). Across six major oil companies, Oxfam estimates combined 2026 profits of roughly €93 billion (Euronews).

Governments are absorbing part of the cost. Spain cut fuel VAT (the sales tax on fuel) from 21% to 10% (Spanish Ministry of Finance). The Netherlands committed €927 million in targeted relief but deliberately avoided a broad fuel tax cut to prevent stoking demand when supply is constrained (PWC). Romania capped retail margins and restricted fuel exports (Radio România). These measures cushion the blow without fixing the underlying supply bottleneck.

The Toll Road Iran Wants to Keep

Iran and Oman are negotiating a permanent transit toll for the strait, framed as payment for "special services" rather than a tariff, to skirt international maritime law (Iran International, Livemint). At roughly $1 per barrel, this would generate an estimated $7.3 billion per year for Iran (Al Jazeera). The proposed Persian Gulf Strait Authority already accepts payment in Chinese yuan (Euronews).

That toll sits alongside a larger financial question. The White House says no money changes hands in the emerging deal. Axios has reported the framework includes up to $20 billion in unfrozen Iranian assets as part of a uranium swap arrangement. If Iran secures both the frozen assets and the permanent toll revenue, Tehran walks away from this crisis with considerably more income than before it started.

The IEA has warned that strategic oil reserves (the emergency stocks governments hold for supply disruptions) will enter a "red zone" by July or August unless flows normalize (Cinco Días). Refilling the record 400-million-barrel drawdown will then add 1.8 million barrels per day of demand competing for the same constrained supply (IEA, BloombergNEF). Markets are pricing in a political deal while ignoring the physical aftermath.