Hormuz premiums hit 4% after ship strike

On June 25, an unknown projectile hit the bridge of the Ever Lovely, a Singapore-flagged container ship sailing through the Strait of Hormuz (DW, Channel News Asia). No one was hurt. The ship stayed seaworthy. But the vessel had been following a safe-passage route recommended by UKMTO (the UK authority coordinating commercial shipping through conflict zones), and within hours the commercial confidence that had been slowly rebuilding after a recent US-Iran diplomatic opening collapsed.

The International Maritime Organization (the UN body coordinating global shipping safety) suspended its Hormuz evacuation corridor after moving 115 ships and roughly 2,500 seafarers out of the Gulf, leaving more than 500 vessels still waiting (UN News, Al Jazeera). Iran's Revolutionary Guards compounded the disruption by declaring safe passage was available only on Iranian-designated routes, rejecting the Oman-side corridor.

US Central Command struck Iranian missile, drone, and radar sites, calling the hit an Iranian attack drone (CENTCOM). Tehran denied responsibility. Neutral maritime authorities described an "unknown projectile" without naming an attacker (ICIS).

For Europe, who fired matters less than what happened next in the insurance market.

Insurance, Not Artillery, Decides Whether Ships Sail

Around 19.8 million barrels of oil per day normally transit the Strait of Hormuz (BNP Paribas). The strait does not need to be sealed to hurt Europe. It needs insurance to become unaffordable.

War-risk cover (the extra premium underwriters charge for voyages through dangerous waters) remained technically available after the strike. But prices jumped to around 3-4% of hull value, up from roughly 0.25% before the conflict (S&P Global). For a $100m supertanker, that translates to roughly $2-3m renewed every seven days (Caixin).

These costs reach European consumers through freight rates and energy benchmarks, not through empty terminals. The European Commission confirmed no immediate supply risk and said it can coordinate emergency oil stocks through the International Energy Agency (European Commission). ECB President Christine Lagarde put the institutional limit plainly: the central bank "cannot reopen the Strait of Hormuz" (ECO). Europe can manage the price shock. It cannot command the insurers, shipowners, and classification societies that decide whether the route is usable.

Who Sends Ships, and Under What Rules

Three EU member states with serious navies have each given different answers.

France wants a UN-mandated maritime mission, seeking international legal cover so any deployment cannot be framed as joining a US combat operation against Iran (Arab News). Italy's Defence Minister Guido Crosetto signalled conditional readiness for demining or escort work, but insisted any deployment needs government and parliamentary approval (Adnkronos). Germany faces its Parlamentsbeteiligungsgesetz (the law requiring Bundestag approval for armed deployments abroad), making a quick role unlikely; Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has kept expectations low (tagesschau).

The most concrete EU-level tool is Operation ASPIDES, the defensive naval mission currently protecting Red Sea shipping from Houthi attacks. The EU's diplomatic service has proposed retasking ASPIDES to take a primary Hormuz mine-clearing role, according to Internazionale/Reuters. But changing the mandate of a CSDP mission (the EU's framework for joint military operations) requires unanimity among all 27 member states. With France, Germany, and Italy each constrained by different domestic legal thresholds, that consensus does not yet exist.

The Ever Lovely took a hit and kept sailing. The harder question is whether the Strait of Hormuz stays open on navigation charts but closed in insurance spreadsheets, legally passable and commercially frozen.