Hungary to disconnect factories as Paks output halves

Hungary published emergency decree 118/2026 on Friday evening, giving the national grid operator power to disconnect large factories from the electricity network (444, HVG). The Danube has fallen so low that Paks, Hungary's only nuclear plant, has lost more than half its output. Prime Minister Péter Magyar said households sit at the end of the restriction chain. Factories go first.

How a dry river shuts a power plant

Paks doesn't burn river water for fuel. It pumps Danube water through cooling circuits to carry away waste heat, then returns it to the river. When the river drops far enough, two things break: the returned water gets too hot to meet environmental limits, and cooling-pump intakes can end up above the sinking waterline (Die Presse, MVM).

Over the past week, MVM (the state company that runs Paks) cut units one by one as the river fell. By 1 August, output had dropped to roughly 940 MW against a normal 2,000 MW, with the Danube at -124 cm and still falling (VG). MVM says -134 cm would force a complete shutdown. Forecasts point toward -144 cm.

Factories absorb the blow

The decree gives MAVIR (Hungary's grid operator) a three-step ladder. First, ask large users drawing more than 0.5 MW to cut voluntarily. Second, issue mandatory reduction orders. Third, disconnect anyone who doesn't comply after two hours' warning (HVG).

Battery plants, cement works, chemical factories and car manufacturers are the named targets (24.hu). The allocation is deliberate: industry absorbs the disruption so homes keep power.

Companies that ignore a cut order face penalties at 200% of the spot price on HUPX, Hungary's power exchange, where electricity is bought and sold hour by hour (444). They cannot claim compensation for lost production. That means stopped shifts, idle lines, and losses absorbed entirely by the factory.

Hungary has scraped together some backup: roughly 240 MW of voluntary load cuts from industrial users, plus about 400 MW from repairing the Dunamenti gas-fired plant (Intellinews). Power lines to neighbouring countries can carry roughly 3,600–3,800 MW of imports (Aktuality). But buying imported electricity during a heatwave, when every neighbour also needs it, is expensive.

The whole Danube corridor is running short

Europe's power markets are linked. When Hungary bids for more imported electricity, it competes against neighbours for the same supply. That pushes prices up across Central Europe.

On 29 July, the cost of next-day electricity clustered tightly: €132/MWh in Hungary, €133/MWh in Romania, €139/MWh in Croatia. But Hungary's hourly price swung from €12/MWh at midday, when solar output peaked, to €268/MWh in the evening (Serbia Energy). Contracts for power in the coming week jumped to roughly €250–263/MWh from €218/MWh a day earlier (Argus).

Romania faces the same shortage of cool river water and spare power. Bucharest declared an August energy alert after Danube flows fell to roughly 1,600 m³/s against a normal 4,000+, threatening Cernavoda's nuclear reactors (Agerpres). Romania has flipped from electricity exporter to evening importer, drawing roughly 1,700 MW mainly from Bulgaria (Profit.ro). Austria's Verbund, the country's largest hydropower producer, is generating roughly 30% below its seasonal average (Deutsche Börse/dpa-AFX).

The drought is squeezing nuclear and hydropower at the same time, during a heatwave that lifts demand. Hungarian factories bear the first cost. If the Danube keeps falling, Hungary and its neighbours will run short of spare generation, cooling water, and import capacity all at once.