Pentagon pulls all submarines from NATO

The United States has told NATO allies it will stop providing submarines to the alliance entirely, cut its fighter jet commitment by one-third, and halve its strategic bomber pool. Pentagon envoy Alexander Velez-Green delivered the numbers in a closed briefing at NATO headquarters last week (Defense News, El País). Washington wants European plans to fill these gaps by early June.

The Loophole Congress Cannot Touch

The cuts run through the NATO Force Model (NFM), a classified registry where member states pre-assign military assets to three tiers of crisis readiness. The US is not pulling troops out of Europe. It is withdrawing the formal promise that reinforcements would arrive in a war (Stars and Stripes).

Congress can block NATO treaty withdrawal. It can set legal floors on US troop numbers in Europe. But NFM pledges fall under classified executive discretion, with no statute governing them (Military Times). The Pentagon can gut NATO's crisis-response architecture without a single vote on Capitol Hill.

Elbridge Colby, the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy driving the shift, has been blunt: European allies are "substantially more powerful than Russia and should take primary responsibility for their own conventional defense" (war.gov). The priority is freeing US assets for a potential conflict with China.

What Money Cannot Buy Fast Enough

The International Institute for Strategic Studies estimates replacing US conventional capabilities in NATO would cost roughly $1 trillion over 25 years (The National News). The Kiel Institute puts the near-term figure at €50 billion per year in additional coordinated spending (Meta-Defense). But the hardest gaps are about physics and time, not budgets.

Only the US operates the EA-18G Growler, the aircraft that jams enemy radar so strike jets can survive in contested airspace. Europe has nothing comparable. Without Growlers, European jets flying against Russian S-400 and S-500 air defences hit radar networks they cannot suppress (RUSI).

Nuclear-powered attack submarines create a parallel problem. US Virginia-class boats provide unlimited underwater endurance and covert cruise-missile strike at ranges past 1,500 km. European diesel-electric subs must surface every 24–72 hours. Only France and the UK operate nuclear attack submarines, and UK readiness is dire: as of March 2026, just one of five Astute-class boats was operationally deployed (19FortyFive).

The same gap shows up in aerial refuelling. The US flies over 400 tanker aircraft. All of European NATO combined has roughly 50–60 (Defense News).

Thirteen European nations bought F-35s partly as insurance that Washington would stay committed. But the F-35 was designed to fly inside an American battle-management network of AWACS (airborne radar planes), Growlers, and tankers. Strip that ecosystem away and European F-35s become fifth-generation airframes running without fifth-generation support (RUSI).

The Industrial Wall

European fighter production peaks at roughly 72 aircraft per year by 2030 across Eurofighter, Rafale, and Gripen lines. The IISS estimates Europe needs 400 more tactical combat aircraft — over five years at maximum output, with zero exports. France's parliament approved an additional €36 billion in military spending through 2030 (Le Monde), but its Rafale line is saturated with export orders and its nuclear submarines are sovereign assets, unavailable for NATO pooling (IFRI).

The countries closest to Russia feel the pressure first. Poland spends 4.81% of GDP on defence — the highest rate in NATO — yet operates no submarines and its F-35s won't reach full capacity until 2030 (Bankier.pl). Finland's defence minister Antti Häkkänen called the situation "a serious moment for Europe" (IS.fi).

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte framed the shift as expected: "Everybody knew this was happening" (NATO). Norway pushed back, calling for transition "in a structured manner" (Le Monde). The Ankara summit on July 7–8 will formalize the new burden-sharing plan. The vulnerability window stretches from now through at least 2030. No political commitment can accelerate a submarine that takes a decade to build.