Poland still waits for US armour

The American armored brigade due to rotate into Poland in May had still not arrived by 25 September, when deputy defence minister Paweł Zalewski confirmed the units "had not" come (RMF24). His answer followed a POLITICO report on 17 September that the Pentagon had reversed the brigade's cancellation (POLITICO). Warsaw was told the brigade would come. The permanent US base Zalewski promoted that same day cannot fill the gap today.

A cancellation, a reversal, and no arrival

In May, the US Army abruptly cancelled the rotation, even though an advance team and some equipment were already in Poland or in transit (Defense News, Task & Purpose). Some of those advance soldiers were ordered back to the United States. No US official has publicly put their name to the decision.

The unit is Black Jack, formally the 2nd Armored Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division. It is a heavy formation of more than 4,000 soldiers that was meant to stay about nine months (Defense News).

Polish ministers moved quickly to reassure. In early July, defence minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said the rotation would resume within weeks (Gazeta Prawna). The reported Pentagon reversal came two months later. Neither has yet produced soldiers on Polish soil.

That gap can only be closed from one place. Polish officials can describe talks and relay assurances. Only the Pentagon can issue the order that assigns a brigade to Poland and sets a date.

What Poland still has, and what it lacks

The Americans have not left. Zalewski said other US rotations continue, and his fellow deputy minister Stanisław Wziątek estimated on 21 September that 6,500 to 7,000 American personnel were in Poland (RMF24).

What is missing is heavy armour. An armored brigade brings tanks and fighting vehicles that train alongside Polish units and learn the roads and ranges they would use in a crisis. Without a date for that unit, Polish commanders are planning exercises and defensive schemes around American armour they cannot be sure will turn up.

A base on paper, a decision in Washington

Zalewski says a permanent base for about 5,000 Americans is agreed in principle, with the site still open. He expects US approval in December, once the Pentagon's review of which forces to keep in Europe produces proposals in November (TVN24).

Warsaw's reasoning makes sense. This year showed that a rotation can be cancelled with soldiers already on the way, and a permanent base would be harder to switch off. But the approval Zalewski forecasts belongs to Washington, and the proposed base has no assigned unit, site or opening date. It adds no combat power now.

The review itself leans against more American commitments. Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon strategist behind it, has argued that Europeans should carry more of their own conventional defence (Stars and Stripes).

Poland is not the only ally waiting on American units while that review runs. On 23 September, Lithuanian defence minister Robertas Kaunas said two US battalions, one heavy and one engineer, would arrive around the end of October (LRT). Estonia's defence ministry says a replacement for the US squadron that left in spring is due in November (Estonian defence ministry).

Those are future dates, not missed ones, and nothing in the record shows the review caused Poland's gap. What the three countries share is dependence on Washington's calendar. Their defence plans turn on when US troops arrive, and those dates are decided by the Pentagon, not in the capitals waiting for them.

Black Jack remains absent despite the reported reversal, and Kosiniak-Kamysz's July assurance that the rotation would resume has not held (Gazeta Prawna). Other US rotations continue, so this is a gap rather than a withdrawal. A December base approval, if it comes on Zalewski's timetable (TVN24), would not close it. What would close it is a Pentagon order naming Black Jack or a replacement, followed by those soldiers arriving in Poland.