Sixfold drone spending, one-third to deliver by 2030

European governments raised spending on counter-drone and very short-range air defence (the weapons that stop drones and missiles close to their targets) sixfold between 2024 and 2025. Yet only around a third of those programmes are expected to deliver by 2030, according to a restricted EU assessment reported by two outlets (Euronews, Dossier Bruselas). EU leaders are due to discuss the findings on 15–16 October (EDA). The public cannot see which programmes are lagging, or why.

The assessment was written for governments, not for publication. Both outlets report the same figures, but neither names the programmes, says how many there are or identifies the countries running them. Without that list, nobody outside government can confirm that both accounts describe the same set of programmes.

Two further gaps limit what the numbers mean. Neither report says whether "deliver" means equipment handed over, accepted by an army or ready for combat. The sixfold rise measures money, and neither account gives a euro baseline, so it says nothing about how many more systems actually work.

Buying is only the first step

A budget buys a contract. The equipment must then be tested and cleared as safe, and crews must be trained. It also has to be wired to the sensors and commanders who decide whether a drone is hostile. On 6 October the European Defence Agency, where EU governments coordinate military planning, warned that firing ranges, test equipment, agreed procedures and skilled staff were all scarce. It added that building enough new test centres before 2030 would take too long (EDA).

Spain shows how long that chain runs. Ministers authorised an estimated €30.24 million purchase of 14 ARACNE counter-drone systems in June 2024 (La Moncloa). By October 2026, an army air-defence unit had received its first equipment and tested its jamming functions. Testing whether it can physically destroy drones was left to a later exercise with no published date (Defensa y Seguridad). The sources give no promised delivery date, so the case shows the length of the process rather than a proven delay.

Germany shows a different problem: outsiders cannot easily tell when equipment will arrive. The Bundeswehr ordered 19 Skyranger 30 anti-aircraft vehicles, one of them for testing (Bundeswehr). Its procurement agency now expects serial deliveries from mid-2027 rather than mid-2026 (t-online). The manufacturer, Rheinmetall, disputes a full year's slip and blames a shorter shift on a change the customer requested. If buyer and seller disagree on the schedule, the public has little chance of checking it.

Who orders, who pays, who protects

Poland shows how quickly a government can buy when it chooses to. On 30 January 2026, Poland's Armament Agency signed a contract for a national counter-drone system worth about PLN 15 billion net (Polish government). The supplier is a consortium led by the Polish group PGZ and Norway's Kongsberg. Warsaw placed the order and will field the system, while most of the money comes as loans from SAFE, the EU's defence loan scheme.

That division of labour applies across Europe. Governments order and field the equipment, EU loans help pay for it, and the agency identifies the bottlenecks. An EU loan does not turn a national purchase into a shared European defence.

The joint European effort exists so far mostly on paper. On 28 September, EU governments designated DECODER, a joint drone and counter-drone project with an estimated size of €3.5–5 billion through 2033 (Council decision). That figure is a planning estimate, not money granted or equipment ordered. Neither the decision nor the press accounts cited here link DECODER to the one-third forecast. They also give no basis for judging whether its participants will build or operate anything together.

If the leaked passage is accurate, Europe's spending surge is still expected to leave most of these programmes undelivered by 2030. Only the agency and the governments holding the assessment can say which programmes those are and what "deliver" means. They owe the public that list and that definition before leaders meet next week.