Trump weighs restoring Turkey’s F-35 access

The F-35 stealth fighter doubles as Washington's most precise diplomatic tool. At the NATO summit, Donald Trump said he has not decided whether to restore Turkey's access to the aircraft (USA Today, The Hill). That ambiguity is deliberate. Because Washington controls who gets in, the jet gives the US power to decide which allies receive the alliance's most sensitive military technology.

Erdogan warned Mitsotakis not to "make the same mistake as Netanyahu" by opposing Turkish access. Mitsotakis said Greece would not tell Washington where to sell weapons, but called Turkey's official threat of war over Greek extension of Aegean territorial waters to 12 nautical miles "an anachronism" (Euronews Greece). Both were performing for an audience of one. The decision belongs to Washington.

How the lock works

Greece is inside the programme. The US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (the Pentagon body managing foreign arms sales) notified Congress in January 2024 of a possible sale of up to 40 F-35A aircraft to Athens (DSCA). Greece signed its acceptance letter six months later (Lockheed Martin).

Turkey is locked out. In 2019, the Pentagon removed Ankara after it accepted Russia's S-400 air-defence system. The reasoning was blunt: the F-35 "cannot coexist with a Russian intelligence-collection platform" that could learn to detect the jet's stealth signature (Pentagon). Washington then sanctioned Turkey's defence procurement agency under CAATSA, the US law penalising major transactions with Russia's defence sector (State Department).

Trump can signal warmth to Erdogan, but CAATSA is statute, not presidential preference. 18 members of Congress have publicly opposed Turkey's reinstatement, and a congressional resolution has been filed to block related transfers (Protothema, RIK). Any reversal requires either verified S-400 removal or a legislative workaround no administration has attempted.

Why European capitals split

Greece and Israel see Turkish F-35s as a direct threat to the military balance. Turkey still holds its formal war claim over the Aegean. Athens argues that giving a state with that threat the same stealth jet Greece flies defeats the programme's purpose. Netanyahu reinforced the pressure separately, warning Trump that Turkish F-35s would shift the regional balance (n-tv, ZEIT).

Romania reads Turkey through the Black Sea. Bucharest cooperates with Ankara and Sofia on mine countermeasures and critical-infrastructure protection (Digi24). For Bucharest, a more Western-anchored Turkey means a more capable partner against Russia.

Italy and Spain complicate any clean solidarity line. Leonardo runs the Cameri F-35 assembly plant in Italy and launched a joint venture with Turkey's Baykar for unmanned systems in June 2025 (Leonardo, Leonardo-Baykar). Those contracts give Rome reason to keep Ankara close. Spain plans to buy Turkish Hurjet trainers (Euronews Spain). Europe's own fifth-generation answer, FCAS (the Franco-German-Spanish future combat air system), remains stuck in industrial disputes (El País). Until FCAS delivers, European capitals stay dependent on American jets and Turkish partnerships to fill the gaps.

Who holds the key

Two gates stand between Turkey and the F-35. The White House must certify the S-400 problem is resolved. Congress can block or delay any sale. Trump controls the first gate, but the question is whether Turkey's geography and military weight justify overriding US export-control law. Athens, Jerusalem, and 18 members of Congress are betting they do not. Ankara and parts of NATO's eastern flank are betting they should. Until the S-400 physically leaves Turkish soil, the lock holds.