Washington signals tariffs on 60 economies

Global trade is supposed to run on rules that firms can read in advance. Washington keeps rewriting them mid-shipment. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told CNBC to "expect action soon" on new tariffs under Section 301, a US law that lets Washington penalise foreign trade practices it considers unfair. The proposed measures would target roughly 60 economies over alleged failures to stop forced-labour goods entering trade. "About 99% of our trade" would be covered, Greer said, though he named no timeline, no product list, no rates and no exemption schedule (CNBC). Those are the details firms need to price orders. Without them, European exporters are already adjusting prices and rerouting inventory against a tariff they cannot yet read.

The damage shows up before collection

A tariff is an import tax paid at the US border, but its cost travels backward through contracts. When a European product arrives carrying a surcharge, the US buyer can absorb it, the European seller can cut its price, or the consumer pays more. All three happen at once, unevenly.

Company results already show the strain. Volvo Group reported a net tariff hit of SEK −1.2 billion (about €105 million) in Q2 2026, more than half from construction equipment, with a further SEK −1.1 billion expected in Q3 (MarketScreener, Placera). French wine tells a different story. In the first four months of 2026, volumes shipped to the US rose 10% while the value of those shipments fell 11% (Vinetur). More bottles for less money, pointing to discounting or a retreat into cheaper product. Exchange rates and shifting US demand could explain part of the drop, but the direction is consistent with tariff-driven margin pressure.

Small firms absorb the sharpest cuts

Germany carries the heaviest industrial exposure. The US was the single largest market for German machinery exports, worth €28 billion in 2023, according to the VDMA industry association (Finanzen/VDMA). Autos and parts face separate US measures targeting the full supply chain (GTAI).

Italy's trade numbers hide a split. Strip out pharmaceuticals, and Italian manufacturing exports to the US fell in Q1 2026. Sectors dominated by micro and small firms dropped 8.3%, with Lombardy down 12.3%, Veneto down 6.4% and Emilia-Romagna down 3.1% (Confartigianato). These are districts built on food, fashion, furniture, eyewear and jewellery. A margin cut of a few percentage points means cancelled orders, not just thinner profits.

Ireland's headline figure, exports to the US down 55.9% in May, needs caution. Most of the drop reflects US multinationals moving intellectual property through Irish legal entities rather than Irish-made goods leaving Irish factories (RTÉ/CSO, Baldwin). The first firms actually hit are physical pharma and medtech plants, not the accounting flows that inflate Ireland's GDP.

Brussels asks for exemptions first

The European Commission has submitted a list covering around €115 billion of EU exports, roughly 20% of goods trade with the US, seeking exemptions for products including wine, cheese, olive oil, agricultural machinery and semiconductor equipment (Le Parisien). Bigger tools exist: the Anti-Coercion Instrument (an EU regulation that lets Brussels hit back when foreign governments use economic pressure), WTO cases, retaliatory tariffs. Each requires legal steps that take months (EUR-Lex).

For European exporters, the tariff rate may matter less than the legal tool behind it. Section 301 is harder to unwind than the emergency import surcharges Washington used earlier this year (19 U.S.C. § 2411). If Washington routes its new package through forced-labour enforcement, it builds a legal base that could outlast one administration. That turns a trade shock into a permanent planning cost: repricing contracts, restructuring supply chains, reconsidering whether the US market justifies the risk. The tariff schedule remains unpublished. Every European firm shipping across the Atlantic is pricing against a target it cannot see.