Trump wants Zelenskyy out over refinery strikes

Donald Trump said on 10 October that Ukraine should "get a new leader who can make a deal" (AP). Kyiv replied that only Ukrainians decide who governs them (Sybiha). Washington has no legal route to replace Ukraine's president. It does supply much of what Ukraine fights with, and accounts conflict on whether Trump's team has threatened to withhold that support unless Kyiv stops striking Russian refineries.

Two days from diesel deal to leadership demand

The row began with fuel. On 9 October, after a call with Vladimir Putin, Trump announced that Russia would release diesel to world markets, a move we covered when it broke (To Brief). The same day, the US Treasury's sanctions office issued General License 135. The licence is a permit allowing sales and imports of Russian-origin diesel until 7 April 2027 (OFAC).

Zelenskyy called the easing of pressure on Moscow an investment in Russia's war (Reuters). A day later, Trump hit back at the White House. He said Zelenskyy "never does" make a deal and demanded that Ukraine stop its drone strikes on Russian oil refineries (AP).

Trump blames those strikes for diesel prices hurting American farmers. US government data show domestic pressures as well: stocks of diesel and heating oil stood about 13% below their five-year average, alongside costly imports and strong exports (EIA).

So far the diesel licence is the only signed US decision. It covers Russian fuel and says nothing about weapons or intelligence for Kyiv (OFAC).

What Ukrainian law says

Foreign minister Andrii Sybiha said Zelenskyy leads a country fighting for its independence and has his people's support (Sybiha). The law backs that reply. Zelenskyy's regular five-year term ended in May 2024. The constitution, however, keeps a president in office until an elected successor takes over (Ukrainian presidency).

No such successor can be elected for now. Ukraine's martial-law statute, the law that governs the country in wartime, bans presidential elections while martial law lasts (Verkhovna Rada). Trump can demand a new leader. He cannot force a vote, let alone pick the winner.

Where Washington's pressure would bite

The more consequential exchange came in Miami. Trump's envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, held talks there on 9 October. The envoys negotiate on the president's behalf, so their words carry his authority.

According to the Financial Times, they raised the possibility of halting US intelligence sharing if Kyiv kept hitting refineries (FT). An unnamed US official gave Axios a different account. That official said the envoys made no threat and only stressed that America supplies intelligence and munitions (Axios).

Both versions agree on one point. Washington reminded Kyiv where its intelligence and munitions come from. No public order cutting either has surfaced, and no interruption has been confirmed.

Europe's stake shows up in air defence. Ukraine relies on Patriot batteries, a US-made system that fires interceptors (missiles that shoot down incoming missiles and drones). NATO says allies buying American weapons on Kyiv's behalf supplied about 75% of the missiles for those batteries (NATO).

Most of those buyers are European governments. Their money keeps the missiles flowing, but the weapons are American and so is the decision to deliver them. The NATO figure shows that dependence for weapons. It says nothing about whether Europe could replace US intelligence, and nothing on the public record answers that.

Trump's demand changes nothing in Ukrainian law, which keeps Zelenskyy in office until wartime elections become possible. The signed US policy shift so far concerns Russian diesel, not aid to Ukraine. The real pressure point is the support Kyiv cannot easily source elsewhere, from intelligence to the air-defence missiles its allies buy in America. The White House owes a plain answer on whether that support now depends on Kyiv ending its strikes on Russian refineries.