US intelligence hangs over Ukraine’s refinery strikes

On 9 October, Donald Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner spent nearly eight hours in Miami pressing Ukraine to stop striking Russian oil refineries (Axios). According to the Financial Times, they warned that US intelligence sharing could end if Kyiv kept ignoring Washington's requests. Washington has switched that intelligence off once before, and Europe can replace only part of it.

A warning, a denial and a diesel deal

Witkoff's public readout says European governments, the European Commission and NATO joined talks on winter preparations and security guarantees, and it announces no agreement (AFP). Neither the readout nor the press reports say which Europeans, if any, heard the disputed exchange.

The FT's version is a conditional warning. A Ukrainian participant told the paper the halt was a "firm request" from the US president (Financial Times). That describes pressure about the future, with no decision to cut anything.

Axios goes further, quoting a Ukrainian official who describes an outright threat. A US official with direct knowledge denies it, saying the envoys only reminded Kyiv that America supplies its munitions and intelligence (Axios). Even the denial confirms that US support came up in the argument. No reporting shows that sharing has actually stopped.

The same official said Trump blames the refinery strikes for high fuel prices at home. On the day of the talks, after a call with Vladimir Putin, Trump announced a deal to bring Russian diesel to world markets (n-tv). The US Treasury then issued a licence permitting Russian diesel trades that US sanctions would otherwise block, valid until 7 April 2027 and with no requirement that Moscow stop hitting Ukraine's power grid (OFAC).

Why Kyiv keeps striking

Kyiv wants a mutual pause rather than a one-sided one. On 22 September, Zelensky said Ukraine was ready for an energy ceasefire with Russia, adding that a unilateral halt had not been discussed (Reuters).

The strikes are his bargaining chip. In an analysis of a Russian refining sector struggling under Ukrainian attacks, the IEA put June output at about 3.8 million barrels a day, around 30% below a year earlier (IEA). That figure does not isolate how much the strikes caused, but it shows what Moscow stands to recover. Russia has meanwhile badly damaged Ukraine's own power network ahead of winter (To Brief), so stopping alone would surrender Kyiv's leverage over that.

What Europe can replace, and what it cannot

Washington has used this lever before. CIA Director John Ratcliffe acknowledged a pause in intelligence sharing on 5 March 2025, and most sharing through military channels stopped (Washington Post). It resumed on 11 March after talks in Jeddah (AP). US military aid was frozen at the same time, so the cost of losing intelligence alone was never measured.

The stakes are concrete. Ukraine relies on US satellite imagery to pick targets and on US warning of incoming Russian attacks to position its air defences (Washington Post).

France kept sharing its own intelligence during the 2025 pause, using capabilities that do not depend on Washington (Reuters). Paris never detailed what it sent, so the size of that substitute remains unknown.

The firmer limits sit elsewhere. In January 2026, the IISS described the United States as Europe's only current provider of space-based ballistic missile warning, the satellites that detect missile launches from orbit (IISS). Le Monde reported in March 2025 that allies might also be unable to pass US-origin intelligence to Kyiv without American consent (Le Monde).

Europe's first political response targets the strikes, not the intelligence. On 10 October, Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal proposed that the next European Council (the summit of EU leaders) discuss faster help for Ukraine to destroy Russian refineries (ERR). His proposal leaves open who would replace US intelligence if it stopped.

Whatever words the envoys chose, Washington has invoked its intelligence support in a dispute over Ukraine's war strategy, and it has suspended that support before. Europe can supply some intelligence of its own. Any security guarantee for Ukraine that depends on US space-based ballistic missile warning, though, still rests on a decision taken in Washington.