US military access across Greenland awaits votes

Washington has a signed deal for broad military access across Greenland, but the access does not exist yet. The agreement that Denmark, Greenland and the United States signed in New York on 22 September would let American military aircraft fly over and land anywhere on the island, and would let US government vessels move beneath its territorial waters (Danish signed text). The agreement takes effect only after lawmakers in Copenhagen and Nuuk approve it. The new sites it names have not yet been mapped out.

What Washington would gain

These would be standing rights. Once the deal is in force, the access clause does not require a new three-government decision for each flight, landing or voyage (White House treaty publication).

That changes where American forces can operate. A 1951 pact already gave the United States extensive rights, but only inside agreed defence areas, which are zones set aside for its military use (1951 agreement). A Norwegian clause-by-clause analysis reads the island-wide movement rights and the explicit undersea access as real expansions beyond that boundary (Samfunn og politikk). ABC News was more cautious, warning that the new clauses may not exceed every older privilege (ABC News).

Washington describes the deal in bigger terms than its text supports. Donald Trump spoke of permanent control, and a White House release claimed lasting control over US security interests (White House release). The signed text reaffirms Danish sovereignty and recognises Greenlanders as a people entitled to self-determination (Danish signed text). Berlin sided with that reading. Chancellor Friedrich Merz welcomed a consensual solution consistent with international law (German chancellor's statement).

Sites without a map

The deal lets the United States expand Pituffik Space Base, its existing site. It also adds Narsarsuaq, a former American airbase in the south, and Mestersvig on the east coast (Danish signed text). Our first report called these new locations bases (To Brief). The treaty designates them as defence areas instead, the same kind of zone as under the old pact. Reuters found no troop numbers or timetable in the text, so their size, design and opening date must still be negotiated (Reuters explainer).

Any further site goes to a joint committee of the three governments. If the committee cannot agree within 90 days, the question moves up to deputy ministers and then to ministers (White House treaty publication). The text does not say what happens if ministers still disagree.

Greenland does get a local stake. German reporting highlighted a preference for Greenlandic firms in construction contracts (Der Spiegel). The text sets no contract value and guarantees no jobs.

What today's governments can promise

The deal enters into force only when a diplomatic note tells Washington that Denmark and Greenland have completed their parliamentary procedures. That means approval by the Folketing (Denmark's parliament) and Inatsisartut (Greenland's parliament) (Danish signed text, Reuters explainer). No such note has surfaced.

The deal also tries to bind a Greenland that does not yet exist. If the island becomes independent, the Danish and Greenlandic governments must ensure that the new state stays in NATO (Danish signed text). They must also ensure that it takes over Denmark's obligations under the deal.

Neither promise is fully theirs to keep. Greenland's 2009 Self-Government Act leaves any decision on independence to Greenlanders (Self-Government Act). If an independent Greenland had to join NATO as a new member, Article 10 of the alliance's founding treaty requires every existing ally to agree (North Atlantic Treaty). That gives each European ally a say over a commitment signed by three other governments.

Signature has secured a negotiated text. Legal access still depends on the two parliaments. Once in force, the agreement would have no end date, and any amendment would need the consent of all three parties, including Washington (Danish signed text). That makes the coming votes in the Folketing and Inatsisartut the last identified chances to stop the new terms before they take effect. Before those votes, the Danish and Greenlandic governments owe their lawmakers clear answers on where the new defence areas' boundaries will run and what happens if ministers deadlock over future sites.