70 ships return to ungoverned Hormuz

Tankers are back in the Strait of Hormuz. On one recent day, 70 vessels passed through the channel, compared with fewer than ten during the worst months of the US-Iran confrontation (CNN). The ceasefire is holding. The route is still a gamble. Iran, the United States, insurers and shipowners are all working from different ideas of what safe passage means, while Europe is left insuring cargo, sending warships and carrying political risk through a strait no one actually controls.

Competing Instructions, No Arbiter

Iran wants prior approval and routes close to its coast. The US and Western insurers prefer ships to use a corridor nearer Oman, under American air cover. A shipowner that follows one instruction set can end up exposed under the other (Rzeczpospolita, EFN). Iran has threatened vessels that sail without permission (Omni).

The return of traffic does not make the traffic safe. War-risk insurance premiums are still about eight times pre-conflict levels, and major carriers continue to avoid the region (Business Insider Polska).

Lloyd's Market Association said the fall in vessel numbers reflected safety concerns, not a shortage of available cover (LMA). War cover can still be bought, but at high premiums and with uncertainty over mine clearance and port operations (S&P Global). The European Commission said crude supply was stable for now, helped by stocks and alternative routes, though Gulf flows would take time to reach Europe (European Commission).

No Command Centre

Europe's bigger difficulty is command. EU foreign-policy chief Kaja Kallas reportedly said there was "no appetite" to extend Aspides, the EU's Red Sea naval escort operation, to Hormuz (Reuters). NATO Secretary General Rutte spoke instead of a France-UK coalition, rather than a NATO-run mission (Rutte remarks). The UN and the International Maritime Organization, the UN's shipping body, are coordinating safety and evacuating stranded seafarers, not running combat escorts (UN News). No authority has set out who would command a European Hormuz mission, what legal basis it would use, or when escorts could open fire.

Some states are moving regardless. Denmark's parliament approved about 10 personnel for a European-led effort: staff officers, drone operators and interpreters (BT, Copenhagen Post). The Netherlands redirected the frigate Zr.Ms. De Ruyter towards the strait (Defensie, Stars and Stripes). The E5 group, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK, confirmed its willingness to participate "as soon as conditions allow" (Élysée). There are real assets and real parliamentary votes, but still no agreed mandate.

Romania shows how quickly a state can be pulled onto the escalation map without joining any Hormuz mission. After Rutte told Fox News that Bucharest had reduced commercial flights to accommodate US tanker aircraft, Iran accused Romania and Italy of complicity in "aggression" (HotNews). Romania denied being party to the conflict, pointing to existing bilateral agreements (News.ro). Bases and airspace can make a country a target before any parliament has voted on deployment.

The Missing Traffic Rule

US and Iranian negotiators are expected in Doha on 30 June for technical talks on keeping the ceasefire alive. Even if they succeed, the practical questions that decide whether Hormuz is usable remain unanswered. Chatham House assessed demining as difficult and dependent on a durable ceasefire (Chatham House). There is no public mine map. No routing framework has replaced the rival Iranian and American instructions. No European parliament has been told what escalation risk its government is accepting by contributing ships, hosting aircraft or insuring cargo through the strait.

The water is open. The rules are not. Until someone decides who controls safe passage, that gap is Europe's operating environment.