Berlin Talks Push EU Aside

Russia fired a nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile at the edge of Kyiv on May 23-24, the third time it has used the weapon during the war. Two days later, Ukraine's chief negotiator was inside the German chancellery, working with the national security advisers of Germany, France and Britain on the outline of a peace process Washington has allowed to freeze.

The Bombardment and the Refusal

The attack was Russia's largest bombardment of 2026: about 90 missiles, including 36 ballistic missiles, and 600 drones aimed at Kyiv. At least four people were killed and around 100 injured. The Institute for the Study of War put the cost to Moscow at roughly $361 million (ISW). Russia's Foreign Ministry then told all foreign diplomats to leave Kyiv, saying it would begin "systematic strikes against Ukrainian military-industrial facilities" (Al Jazeera).

European governments stayed put. France's foreign ministry spokesperson described the demand as "a new intimidation" and said Paris would not evacuate (Le Figaro). In Berlin, the Political Director of the Auswärtiges Amt, Germany's foreign ministry, summoned Russian ambassador Nechayev. It was a measured response: serious enough to signal resolve, short of a full ministerial confrontation (Deutschlandfunk). Poland warned that any strike on its embassy would be treated as "a deliberate act of aggression" (Polsat News). More than 50 countries condemned Russia at the UN Security Council (Kyiv Post, UN).

Washington chose a different register. Secretary of State Rubio did not condemn the strikes and said Kyiv has been "a very dangerous place" (RFE/RL). He also confirmed that American peace talks are "frozen."

The E3 Moves Fast

On May 26, Ukraine's chief negotiator Rustem Umerov met in Berlin with the E3, the format bringing together Germany, France and the United Kingdom through their national security advisers (Ukrinform). Germany's Günter Sautter hosted the meeting. Chancellor Merz was not there, which was its own signal: Berlin wanted the channel open, but not yet elevated to the top political level.

The E3 is not an EU body. It has no treaty, no secretariat and no legal mandate. It emerged in 2003 as the three powers negotiated with Iran over its nuclear programme, grouping Europe's three permanent members of the UN Security Council. Brexit did not remove Britain from it, because the format sits entirely outside EU machinery.

That is its attraction. The EU's Common Foreign and Security Policy, the bloc's framework for joint diplomacy, usually needs unanimity among 27 member states and lengthy coordination. The E3 can gather in days. Zelensky proposed formalising an "E3 plus Ukraine" channel on May 20 (newsukraine.rbc.ua).

Speed Costs Legitimacy

The price of that speed is legitimacy. Poland, Ukraine's largest regional military supporter, is not at the table. Italy, the EU's third-largest economy, is out too. Warsaw's complaint is not just wounded pride. Poland's size, geography and exposure to Russia make it an obvious participant in any negotiation involving Europe, Kyiv and Moscow (Rzeczpospolita). Those inside the E3 argue that smaller rooms move faster. No Polish official has publicly targeted the May 26 meeting in particular, but the discomfort is plain.

The split is about more than seating arrangements. France and Italy favour opening diplomatic engagement with Moscow. Germany, Poland and the Baltic states resist that, arguing that talks before Russian withdrawal would reward aggression (Euronews). EU foreign ministers discussed appointing a formal Special Representative for Ukraine at the Gymnich meeting in Limassol on May 27-28. A Gymnich is an informal gathering of EU foreign ministers, with no binding decisions. The EU's spokesperson lowered expectations, saying an envoy would make sense only "once Russia has demonstrated a genuine willingness to end the war" (EEAS).

So the informal track is filling the space left by the stalled formal one. For Ireland, which has long relied on EU process and consensus as a way for smaller states to matter, that is the uncomfortable part. The countries most exposed to Russian aggression, Poland and the Baltics, are outside the format now shaping their security. Poland arms Ukraine's frontline. Italy funds reconstruction. Neither is in the room where peace terms are being drafted.