Brussels eyes €450bn from Temu, crypto

The next EU budget fight may arrive first as a small charge on a parcel, a crypto trade or an online bet. Brussels needs money for the 2028-2034 budget without asking national governments to write a visibly larger cheque, and reporting now points to five possible new revenue sources worth about €450bn. No public legal text yet confirms the list, the rates or the yield claimed by Il Fatto Quotidiano.

The Debt Is Real, the Disguise Is Political

The problem began with NextGenerationEU. During the pandemic, the EU borrowed jointly. That debt now has to be repaid, and the Commission has already made the case that new EU revenue should help service it while easing pressure on national contributions in COM(2021) 570. The Council kept the same route open when it backed an adjusted own-resources package.

The choices are not generous. The EU can cut programmes, ask capitals for more money, borrow again, or tax activity that moves across borders. The reported package reaches for the last option because the next long-term budget will have to cover Ukraine, defence and competitiveness spending while trying to protect older programmes.

That is how cheap parcels end up in a budget negotiation. A levy on low-value imports may look in Brussels like EU revenue. To shoppers, including Irish shoppers ordering from the same platforms as everyone else, it will look like a higher checkout price or delivery fee. Maltese MEPs are already presenting it as a levy on Temu, Shein and AliExpress purchases, according to Lovin Malta.

The Bill Moves to Whoever Cannot Dodge It

The name on the bill is not always the person who pays it. If a crypto platform is charged, it can claw back the cost through higher trading fees or a wider spread between buying and selling. If betting operators are charged, punters may see poorer odds or fewer promotions.

A parcel levy would work in much the same way. Brussels may collect from platforms, carriers or importers, but the charge can still find its way into consumer prices. The final burden depends on who has the power to resist it: large platforms may absorb some of the cost, carriers may pass it on, and low-margin sellers may send it straight to the customer.

The current EU revenue system does not yet include these reported measures. It is built on sources such as customs duties, VAT-based revenue, plastics-related contributions and national-income-based payments under Decision 2020/2053. The Commission’s own budget revenue page describes that system, not a settled crypto, betting or parcel package.

The split between countries follows the same logic. If new EU revenue replaces part of what governments pay from national income, finance ministries get breathing room. If it simply funds a bigger budget, net payers still face a larger EU bill, only by a less visible route.

That matters for Germany and the Netherlands, which usually push hardest against a larger budget. It matters for France and Poland too, but for different reasons. France wants to protect farm spending while its public finances are under EU pressure after the Council opened an excessive-deficit procedure in July 2024. Poland has a direct stake in cohesion and agriculture because Warsaw still presents EU funds as central to its 2021-2027 programme.

Every Capital Gets a Veto

The hard limit is not economic. It is legal and political. Own-resources decisions need unanimity and national approval under Article 311. The long-term budget also needs unanimity under Article 312.

That gives every capital a lever. A government can turn a dispute over parcels, betting, crypto, rebates or total spending into a fight over the whole budget. Brussels may want revenue that looks less like a national cheque, but member states still decide whether that political cover survives contact with domestic politics.

The reported €450bn figure is therefore a bargaining signal, not a settled tax plan, while the legal text is missing. The debt repayment is real. The unanswered question is who gets the bill, and how clearly voters will see it.