Ukraine allies split on talks and drones

Volodymyr Zelenskyy spent two days moving between two versions of Europe's answer to the war. On June 7 in London, the E3 (France, Germany and the UK, working outside the formal EU machinery) backed his proposal for direct talks with Moscow (Élysée Palace, Euromaidanpress). Two days later in Tallinn, the NB8 (the loose Nordic-Baltic grouping of eight states, from Iceland to Lithuania) signed drone co-production deals with him and promised an "irreversible path" to NATO membership (Danish PM's Office).

The London track is built around opening a channel to Moscow. The Tallinn track is built around making Ukraine harder to defeat until Russia changes its calculation.

The Diplomatic Bet

The E3 statement set out five conditions for talks. They include holding the current front line, deploying international peacekeepers to Ukraine, and keeping Russian assets frozen until reparations are paid. Macron has been pushing this line for months: Europe, because of geography, cannot leave the shape of any settlement to Washington. "This is an architecture of peace and security for Europeans, given the geography," he told reporters (Le Figaro).

Berlin is behind the idea, though with more caution. Its calculation is that Russia is "in a position of weakness" after months of Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian infrastructure (FAZ).

The difficulty is the other side of the table. Putin rejected Zelenskyy's open letter on May 31. The E3 has produced a peace framework, but not yet a Russian interlocutor.

The Military Answer

Tallinn had a different tone. The NB8 declaration made no reference to dialogue with Moscow. It committed all nine signatories to defence-industrial co-production and called for all six EU accession negotiating clusters to be opened by July. Those clusters are the grouped chapters of EU law that a candidate country has to adopt before it can join.

The follow-through was practical. Latvia signed a drone technology-transfer agreement with Ukraine. Norway committed about €110 million for maritime drones under its Nansen Programme (Norwegian Government). Finland confirmed a co-production framework covering drones, technology exchange, and the deployment of Ukrainian military specialists to Finnish territory (MTV Uutiset).

That changes Ukraine's role. In this setting it is no longer simply the country receiving help. It is a technology partner with battlefield-tested drone knowledge that the Nordic and Baltic states want inside their own defence systems.

Poland's Empty Chair

Poland was absent from both tables, despite being Ukraine's largest neighbour and its main logistics hub. Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that "no arrangements in which Poland does not participate will be respected by us" and proposed turning the E3 into an "E5" by adding Poland and Italy (Wiadomości WP).

Warsaw's exclusion was not only diplomatic awkwardness. It followed the hard logic of military commitment. Poland has refused to send troops to Ukraine, while peacekeeping is among the E3's five conditions. A former Polish ambassador put it bluntly: "The moment Poland declared it would send no soldiers was the moment its chances of joining fell to zero" (Onet).

That is the price now being attached to a seat in Europe's peace architecture: a willingness to put forces on the ground.

Roads to Ankara

Both roads now lead to the NATO summit in Ankara on July 7-8. The NB8 wants allies to deliver air-defence commitments there. The E3 has promised further coordination.

Whether the two European strategies reinforce each other or work against each other depends on something neither London nor Tallinn could deliver: a signal from Putin that he sees the diplomatic track as more than European noise filling the space left by Washington's pivot to the Middle East.

Zelenskyy looked comfortable at both tables. In Ankara, European capitals may have to decide which table matters more.