EU backs offshore return hubs

Europe has now put a legal frame around an idea that has been circling migration politics for years: sending people with deportation orders to detention centres outside the EU while governments arrange their removal.

The European Parliament, the EU's directly elected legislature, voted on 17 June to allow member states to establish these "return hubs" in non-EU countries. The new Return Regulation replaces a 2008 directive that left large differences between national systems. It passed with the support of the centre-right European People's Party and far-right groups (Euractiv). The Council, where national governments vote, still has to formally adopt the text, but the political line is now set. The only country to have tested the model, Italy in Albania, spent tens of millions of euro and directly returned five people.

The Albania Price Tag

Italy's Albania scheme is the closest Europe has to real evidence on offshore return centres. It is not flattering. The facilities at Shengjin and Gjader were built for up to 3,000 people. Recent occupancy has been between 15 and 20. Construction cost about €74 million, according to ActionAid figures (Internazionale). In all, around 620 people have been held there. Five were directly returned to Egypt (IRC).

The legal trouble arrived almost as quickly as the first transfers. Italian courts refused to validate early detentions, finding that the government's "safe country" designations for people from Bangladesh and Egypt did not stand up (Internazionale). Separately, Advocate General Laila Medina, an adviser to the EU's Court of Justice whose opinions often indicate where the court will land, said offshore centres are not unlawful in principle. But EU law still applies in full wherever a member state exercises control (CJEU). Moving the centre offshore does not move the person outside the rights system.

The human consequences were visible early. The IRC documented 54 "critical events" at Gjader in the first 48 days, including self-harm and suicide attempts (IRC).

A Coalition Without a Blueprint

The politics behind return hubs is far more developed than the operating model. Denmark's Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen, wants offshore centres running during her current term (EPRS). The Netherlands has linked its efforts to a group including Germany, Greece, Austria and Denmark (WNL). Germany's Interior Minister, Dobrindt, backs what his CSU party calls an "Abschiebeoffensive", a deportation push (Deutschlandfunk).

Denmark's part in this carries a neat institutional twist. Under Protocol No 22, its opt-out from EU justice and home affairs law, the regulation would not automatically apply to Copenhagen. Denmark is pushing a policy it will not be bound by, acting as the political icebreaker for other governments.

Spain is the clearest opponent. Madrid argues that the hubs risk breaching non-refoulement, the legal principle that bars governments from sending people to places where they may face danger (RTVE). Spanish officials also say detaining people for up to 24 months over an administrative offence would be disproportionate. Under qualified majority voting, where 55% of member states representing 65% of the EU population must agree, Spain cannot stop the law on its own. Madrid does not have enough allies to form a blocking minority (El País).

France has chosen the middle lane. Paris backs tougher enforcement, but is keeping some distance from offshore hubs as the main instrument (Public Sénat, Ahram/AFP).

What No Government Has Named

Supporters of the regulation are responding to a real failure in the system. European Commission figures show that fewer than 30% of EU return orders lead to actual deportation (Euractiv). Some governments want agreements with third countries signed this year, with hubs operating by 2027 (Reuters via Dawn).

The missing pieces are not small ones. No government has named a willing host country. There is no budget framework. The Commission's proposal also arrived without a public impact assessment, an unusual absence for legislation of this scale, as a College of Europe analysis noted.

There is broad agreement that Europe's return system is not working. Italy's Albania experiment was meant to show that offshore processing could work. So far, it has mostly shown what the bill looks like.