Pentagon Cuts NATO Reinforcement Pledges

For 75 years, NATO worked on a bargain that was simple enough to explain: America guaranteed Europe’s defence, and Europe gave American forces the bases, ports and political room to do it. That bargain is now being unpicked in two places at once. US troops are being pulled out of Europe, while the Pentagon is also reducing the wartime reinforcement promises on which NATO’s defence plans depend.

On May 19, General Alexus Grynkewich, NATO’s supreme allied commander in Europe, told alliance defence chiefs that "additional redeployments should absolutely be expected" (Stars and Stripes). In the same week, the Pentagon moved to formally cut US contributions to the NATO Force Model, the classified system that sets out how many troops each ally promises to make available in wartime, according to three sources cited by Reuters (Military Times).

The visible part of the shift has already removed 5,000 troops from Europe, including a cancelled armoured brigade rotation to Poland and a long-range missile battalion from Germany (Defense News). The quieter part goes deeper. The Force Model is the machinery behind NATO’s crisis planning: it decides how many reinforcements can arrive, and from where, if deterrence fails. NATO’s regional defence plans, agreed at the 2023 Vilnius summit, were built around specific American commitments. Take those away, and the plans no longer add up.

NATO secretary-general Mark Rutte called the shift "expected" and "only right" (Brussels Signal). Grynkewich put the timeline for European self-sufficiency at "certainly by 2035" (Breaking Defense). That leaves Europe with a five-to-nine-year gap: the old guarantee is being reduced before the replacement is ready.

Iran Drains the Stockpile

The US war with Iran, Operation Epic Fury, launched in February 2026, has consumed 45 to 80 percent of several categories of American precision munitions, according to CSIS (CSIS). The Pentagon has notified the UK, Poland, Estonia, Lithuania and Norway of "serious delays" to deliveries of HIMARS rockets, NASAMS interceptors and Javelin missiles (Euromaidanpress).

For Europe, the problem is not just fewer American soldiers on the continent. It is fewer American weapons arriving when European states are trying to rearm, support Ukraine and prepare for a security order in which Washington is less willing to carry the conventional burden.

Germany Punished, Eastern Flank Exposed

Germany has taken the sharpest hit. Chancellor Friedrich Merz had publicly criticised US conduct of the Iran war, reportedly telling a German audience that his children should not move to America. Washington responded by withdrawing 5,000 troops from German soil and cancelling the planned Tomahawk cruise missile deployment. On May 19, Merz conceded that the missile deal is effectively dead (NTZ).

Germany’s harder problem is not the defence budget, but the people needed to turn money into military capacity. The Bundeswehr has 120,000 active soldiers against a NATO requirement of roughly 280,000 by 2030. Berlin has budgeted €108 billion for defence in 2026, but spending cannot summon recruits on its own. A May survey found that only 41% of Germans still view the US as an ally (YouGov).

On NATO’s eastern flank, the withdrawal is sorting allies into tiers. Poland, which spends 4.48% of GDP on defence, sent officials to consult Deputy Defence Secretary Elbridge Colby, the architect of a doctrine he calls "NATO 3.0". Its logic is blunt: Europeans should take over the conventional defence of Europe so the US can move more forces towards China (Defence24).

Poland has been treated as the "model ally". Even so, its cancelled 4,000-troop brigade rotation remains cancelled. Equipment arrived in Polish ports, but the soldiers meant to operate it did not.

Estonia’s foreign minister called the US decisions "uncoordinated" and urged allies to "urgently determine the reasoning and next steps" (ERR). Romania has taken a different route, shifting towards hosting temporary US equipment and earning Washington’s praise for opening bases during the Iran campaign.

July in Ankara

The NATO leaders’ summit on July 7-8 will show whether these Force Model cuts become formal alliance commitments. Congressional resistance may slow the Pentagon down. Republican hawks on the Armed Services committees have threatened consequences if the Pentagon drops below the statutory floor of 76,000 US troops in Europe (Notus). But Colby’s argument predates Trump: Europe must handle its own conventional defence so America can focus on China. It would likely survive him too.

For Ireland, a non-NATO state inside the EU, this is still our security neighbourhood. The question facing European capitals between now and 2035 is whether the gap left by the United States remains a planning headache, or hardens into a crisis.