Poland and Romania Vie for 5,000 US Troops Pulled From Germany

The old transatlantic bargain is not collapsing in one clean movement. It is loosening country by country, deal by deal. Washington's plan to pull 5,000 troops from Germany and cancel a brigade rotation to Poland has not produced a neat European response. It has produced a queue: governments trying to win American favour while voters in parts of Europe become more doubtful about the bargain itself.

The Scramble for American Boots

Poland and Romania are both pressing Washington to host the troops leaving Germany. At the Bucharest Nine summit on May 13, a forum for NATO's eastern flank states, Romanian President Nicușor Dan said his country wanted "as many American soldiers as possible" (Agerpres). Polish President Nawrocki made the same pitch: "Poland is ready to receive these troops" (Brussels Signal).

There is no joint eastern flank proposal. That is the point. An analysis in the Eurasia Review warned that the bilateral scramble could be "disastrous for the image of the Eastern Flank" (Eurasia Review). Instead of presenting Washington with a regional case, Warsaw and Bucharest are making separate offers.

The Pentagon has not said where the troops will go, or whether they will remain in Europe at all. An official told reporters no final allocation had been made (Digi24). Washington sent an under-secretary to the B9 summit rather than a cabinet-level figure. The message landed clearly enough: with this administration, the real traffic moves through bilateral channels, not alliance forums.

Germany's Missile Gap

Germany has a different problem. Chancellor Merz's government formally asked last July to buy 400 Tomahawk missiles. Ten months on, the Pentagon has still not replied. Defence State Secretary Müller would not even confirm whether Washington had acknowledged the letter (Defense News).

On May 18, the State Department approved a separate $11.9 billion naval combat systems package for Germany, covering radar and fire control systems (Ground News). The two files are moving through different procurement tracks. Still, the contrast is awkward: naval electronics worth billions have cleared, while the long-range missiles Berlin says it needs remain unanswered.

Germany's fallback is ELSA, a European long-range strike programme being developed with Britain. Asked whether it could deliver before 2030, officials would not commit. Analysts say ELSA could become "a political brand, a procurement club, or a genuine European defense structure", because the governance has not yet been settled (ESUT).

Fractures Inside Governments

The chase for American favour is also opening cracks inside governments.

In Poland, President Nawrocki told Trump on May 3 that Poland would welcome the withdrawn troops. Prime Minister Tusk accused him of "throwing mud at his own country" by implying the government was failing on security (Rzeczpospolita). The National Security Bureau then revealed it had received no advance information from the Defence Ministry about the cancelled rotation (Radio ZET). Poland's cohabitation, with president and prime minister drawn from rival camps, has become a security problem of its own.

In Italy, the split runs through the cabinet table. Defence Minister Crosetto is pushing to meet NATO spending targets, while Economy Minister Giorgetti says energy bills must come first (Askanews). That budget argument is taking place in a country where public trust in Trump's America has fallen to 17%, below China and Russia, according to polling covered by several European outlets (L'Unità, Euractiv).

Hungary was the only country to refuse to sign the B9 joint declaration, which described Russia as "the most significant and direct threat to Allies' security." Budapest's footnote said the "incoming Hungarian Government" would decide later (Norwegian Government). The new Tisza government says it wants to be a "valued Western ally", but it is still hedging on the commitments that matter: no weapons for Ukraine, and no participation in EU joint borrowing for defence (Világgazdaság).

The Test That Hasn't Come Yet

The NATO summit in Ankara in July will decide whether the troops leaving Germany stay in Europe or go home. But the harder question comes after that. Several allied governments are now discussing defence budgets of 4-5% of GDP. None has yet had to face voters while cutting social programmes to pay for it.

The alliance is being defended through competition among its members. That may keep American troops somewhere in Europe. It also risks weakening the political base that makes the alliance possible. The bill has not yet reached voters.