Poland Chases €33.6bn Farm Deal

The EU’s 2028-2034 budget is still a draft, but the argument has already found its shape. Germany and the Netherlands, as net contributors, want more money pushed towards defence, research and competitiveness. Poland, Spain and France, as major defenders of farm and regional spending, want the old pillars protected.

The fight is over Europe’s next seven-year spending plan, and farm money is where the numbers become political.

EU Agriculture Commissioner Christophe Hansen told Polish outlets that Polish farmers should receive at least €33.6bn in the next cycle, up from €31.2bn now (Business Insider Polska, RMF24). Add indirect supports, such as agricultural schools, and the total could pass €40bn.

That is a signal, not a settlement. The European Parliament has already rejected member states’ first draft of the MFF, the EU’s legally binding seven-year budget framework (Euronews, European Court of Auditors).

Why farm money shapes the whole budget

The Common Agricultural Policy, or CAP, is the EU system that keeps farm incomes and rural investment moving. Its current €386.6bn seven-year budget runs through two main channels: direct payments to farmers, and rural-development funds for investment, environmental schemes and local economies.

Between 2018 and 2022, direct payments made up 23% of total farming income across the EU. All farm subsidies together averaged 33% (European Commission, European Commission). For many producers, EU support is not a top-up. It is part of the basic income model.

Poland’s position is strengthened by scale and by an older eastern European argument about fairness. Newer member states have long said their payments per hectare should move closer to those received by farmers in France, Germany or the Netherlands.

Hansen confirmed that this convergence logic is still alive, linking Poland’s projected increase to the continuing equalisation of payment rates (RMF24). On that basis, 16 countries would receive more. Eleven would receive less.

Who wants to protect farm spending, and who wants to redirect it

The Cyprus Council presidency, which is brokering the talks, has proposed cutting roughly 2% from the Commission’s plan. The cut is not spread evenly. Competitiveness, defence, research and external action would face reductions of around 3.9%, while agriculture and cohesion are more protected (EUAlive).

That unevenness explains the politics. Spain signed a declaration with 16 countries demanding that cohesion and farm funding be preserved (Spain Foreign Ministry). Madrid then went further, signalling openness to new EU revenue sources and even fresh common debt to avoid cutting farm support (EFE).

French reporting has consistently placed Paris among the defenders of farm spending (Banque des Territoires).

Germany is on the other side of the table. Berlin called the proposal "unaffordable" (Spiegel). The Dutch finance minister described the Cyprus compromise as a "no-go box" that funded "yesterday’s priorities" at the expense of "tomorrow’s challenges" (The Straits Times/Reuters). Sweden objected that defence and research were cut while agriculture was spared (Europaportalen).

CAP accounted for about 24.6% of EU spending in 2023 (European Commission). Net contributors, meaning countries that pay more into the EU budget than they receive back, argue that protecting that share leaves less room for defence, competitiveness and research at the very moment Europe says it needs all three.

What the headline numbers still hide

The €33.6bn figure is nominal. No inflation-adjusted comparison with the current budget has been published, so the increase may be smaller than it looks if input costs keep rising faster.

EU rules require at least 10% of direct payments to go to smaller farms and at least 3% to young farmers (European Commission). But no Polish projection for 2028-2034 yet shows how the money would be distributed by farm size or region. The total can rise while the real distributional argument remains unresolved.

The larger shock, still sitting in the background, is Ukraine’s possible accession to the EU. Ukraine currently receives up to €50bn through a separate 2024-2027 facility (European Commission). One budget draft has already cut broader 2028-2034 Ukraine support from €100bn to €89bn (Kyiv Independent).

No credible model has yet shown what Ukrainian membership would mean for Polish, French or Spanish farm payments. There is no number attached to that question yet, but every capital in the room knows it is coming.