Romania waits on EU funds verdict

Romania's claim on EU recovery money now rests on a familiar European distinction: what a government says is coming, and what Brussels has actually signed off. Dragoș Pîslaru, the interim EU funds minister, says Romania will collect more than 90% of the grants available under its recovery plan (EVZ, Curs de Guvernare). For now, that is a projection. By 1 September, Romania had received about €13 billion from a €20.1 billion plan, or roughly 64% (Gândul, Aktual24). To get from there to 90%, Bucharest needs several more billion euro approved. That decision has not been made.

The money comes through the RRF, the Recovery and Resilience Facility, the EU's post-pandemic fund. It does not pay countries simply because they wrote a plan or signed contracts. It pays when agreed reforms and investments are completed (European Commission). As we reported on Sunday, Romania's implementation period ended on 31 August, with interim Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan accepting that missed reforms had already cost the country hundreds of millions.

Two Requests, No Cheques

Pîslaru's 90.58% figure depends on two payment requests still outside Romania's bank account. The fifth request was submitted on 14 August and is worth €2.84 billion gross (Agerpres, Mediafax). Pîslaru said the Commission's preliminary view could take about two months (RFI România). The sixth and final request is expected by 30 September (Profit.ro). It has not yet been filed.

Filing a request is only the start of the process. The Commission first checks whether the promised reforms and measurable targets have been delivered. EU finance officials then review that assessment, before Brussels signs the payment decision (EUR-Lex). Romania's 90% claim includes money it hopes will survive those checks. The Commission has not yet said that it will.

Wage Law and Coal

Bucharest already has a sense of what is gone. Bolojan said Romania had forfeited €770 million because Parliament failed to pass a unified public-sector wage law, a reform Brussels had required as part of the plan. He blamed PSD, the largest party, for blocking it (HotNews, Euronews). That is Bolojan's estimate for the domestic audience. The formal cut will come from the Commission's final assessment.

Coal is the second problem. Romania had agreed to close lignite-fired power units as one of its decarbonisation milestones. Parliament then voted to keep plants at Turceni and Craiova operating, and the Commission said it would examine whether the milestone could still be treated as fulfilled (Romania Insider, Agerpres). Bolojan put the exposure at about €100 million (Economica). The coal case is more awkward than the wage law because it asks whether a reform Brussels once accepted can be reversed later by Parliament without financial consequences.

Governments Count Plans, Brussels Counts Delivery

This is not just a Romanian habit. Across the recovery fund, governments have an incentive to count expected money early, while Brussels counts delivery late. Italy's government reported €153.2 billion received and 366 milestones achieved, but the Corte dei conti, Italy's national auditor, found only 12.4% of projects completed by value, with more than €75 billion still under construction (Struttura di missione PNRR, LavoriPubblici.it). Spain, the strongest performer in the EU scheme, still saw the Commission hold back €537 million from its sixth payment because some objectives were unfinished (El País).

Romania's gap is wider because the political failures are larger, and because the country has less room to absorb the loss. Fitch rates Romania at BBB- with a negative outlook (Fitch). Any EU grants that disappear will have to be replaced by borrowing from the Romanian state at that rating, which makes the money dearer. The bill then moves from Brussels to Romanian taxpayers, public services and a budget already carrying one of the EU's largest deficits.

Romania's problem has shifted from announcing EU money to financing the gap if part of it never arrives. The final number now depends on how the Commission treats payment requests 5 and 6.