Romanian F-16 downs drone over Estonia

At 11:03 on May 19, NATO fighters were scrambled from Šiauliai in Lithuania. A drone had crossed into Estonian airspace from Russia. At 12:14, a Romanian F-16 pilot fired. The UAV came down in farmland near Põltsamaa, 30 metres from the nearest house.

It was the first time since Russia's full-scale war began that a NATO fighter had destroyed a drone in Baltic airspace (Romania Insider, Estonian Defence Forces).

Two days later, the presidents of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania asked NATO to make that response the new normal. They want Baltic Air Policing, currently a peacetime watch mission, upgraded into a proper air defence mandate, with rules allowing shoot-downs and dedicated counter-drone systems based on Baltic soil (ERR).

That requires unanimous consent from all 32 NATO members. It lands just as Washington is signalling further troop withdrawals from Europe.

How Russia turns Ukrainian drones into a NATO problem

The drones are mostly Ukrainian. Ukraine's long-range strike UAVs are aimed at Russian oil infrastructure close to the Baltic borders, especially the Ust-Luga and Primorsk terminal complexes in Russia's Leningrad region.

Russian electronic warfare units then jam GPS signals or feed in false coordinates, pushing the drones off course into NATO territory. Ukraine has acknowledged and apologised for this. Estonia's defence minister said the F-16's target was "most likely a Ukrainian drone that had veered off course" under heavy electronic interference.

The manoeuvre works in the information space as much as in the sky. On May 18, Russia's SVR intelligence service claimed Ukrainian drone operators were stationed at Latvian military bases and threatened strikes on Latvian "decision-making centres." Latvia, Ukraine and the US rejected the claims (ISW).

Belarus then filed a diplomatic protest claiming a drone had entered its airspace from Lithuania, days after its own military had warned Lithuania by hotline about a drone heading the other way. Lithuania called the protest "direct proof of Belarusian complicity in Russia's information attack".

The pattern is clear enough. Russian electronic warfare pushes Ukrainian drones into NATO airspace. Russian intelligence then uses the incidents as evidence that the Baltic states are attacking Russia.

The drone campaign also ran alongside an unannounced Russian nuclear exercise on May 19, including missile launches from Belarusian territory (Defense News). In the space of a week, NATO's eastern flank was hit by drones, disinformation and nuclear signalling.

Three countries, three system failures

Latvia's coalition collapsed on May 14 after the botched response to a drone strike on an oil depot in Rēzekne (LSM). It was the first government in a NATO member state to fall as a direct consequence of drone-related hybrid warfare.

Prime minister Andris Kulbergs formed a replacement coalition six days later. It is untested. The uncomfortable detail is that Ukraine had offered the Baltic states a drone radar and detection programme. Estonia accepted. Latvia turned it down. The drone that hit Rēzekne arrived undetected.

Lithuania's civil defence failed three times in five days. The emergency app LT72 crashed under user load on May 20, displayed outdated data on May 21, and failed again on May 22. Shelters in Vilnius were locked. Sirens did not sound. The president and prime minister were moved to bunkers.

Estonia's radar saw the May 19 drone before it entered the country. But Estonia has no fighter jets of its own. Without the Romanian pilot already airborne on a training sortie, the drone would have carried on unimpeded.

What Ankara decides

Turning the Baltic mission from policing into defence needs a formal decision by the North Atlantic Council, NATO's permanent governing body, where any single ally can veto. The next plausible moment is the Ankara Summit on July 7-8.

NATO's supreme commander, General Grynkewich, confirmed on May 19 that Europe "should absolutely expect additional redeployments" of US troops. The layered detection and command systems the Baltics need still depend on American architecture.

European replacements are being built. Poland is developing 18 counter-drone batteries. Latvia hosts NATO's first C-UAS innovation range. But none of that covers Baltic skies today.

The European Parliament expressed "full solidarity" on May 21. Solidarity is not a radar network. Ankara will show whether 32 allies are willing to pay for the hardware behind the words, at the very moment the country that underwrites NATO's air defence architecture is moving back from Europe.