Seven States Hold EU's 2035 Engine Line

The fight over Europe’s 2035 car rules has become a test of which industrial gamble Brussels is prepared to protect.

France, Spain and five smaller countries want the deadline held firm, because billions have already been put into battery factories that need a guaranteed market. Germany, Italy and several eastern European states want more room for combustion engines, though their reasons differ and none is simply about climate policy.

The EU's Regulation 2023/851 does not formally ban combustion engines. It sets CO2 emissions for new cars at zero grams per kilometre from 2035, which in practice leaves battery-electric vehicles as the only viable option. In December 2025, the European Commission proposed weakening this to 90%, allowing carmakers to cover the remaining 10% through e-fuels, synthetic fuels made from captured CO2, or biofuels.

On June 5, seven countries signed a joint declaration defending the original target, initiated by France's ecological transition minister. They say they have a blocking minority in the EU Council, meaning the 35% of the EU population needed to stop a law. On paper, they just about do. In practice, one defection would bring the whole position down.

France defends the deadline to protect industrial bets, not climate principles

France has too much money on the table to treat 2035 as an abstract climate date. The French government put €700 million in subsidies and €880 million in public loans into Verkor's Dunkirk battery factory alone.

That wager only works if carmakers are pushed towards European batteries rather than cheaper Asian ones. The problem is that Renault, Verkor's anchor customer, has cut orders from 12 GWh a year to just 3 GWh, because the batteries cost 30-40% more than Korean and Chinese alternatives. Macron's original target of 100-120 GWh in French capacity by 2030 is now described as "out of reach".

France is not defending the deadline because the strategy is plainly working. It is defending it because weakening the rule would remove the last regulatory support holding that strategy upright.

Germany's industry doesn't agree with its chancellor

Chancellor Merz wants the rule scrapped. The VDA, Germany's car industry association, projects 225,000 jobs at risk by 2035.

But the German industry is not speaking with one voice. A May 2026 Fraunhofer ISI study found that more than 60% of German car companies have already invested heavily in electrification and see weaker CO2 standards as "the least desired measure." These firms need certainty to justify billions already spent. The loudest calls for more time are coming from companies that moved later and now want the timetable softened.

Italy: one company's biofuel bet, dressed as national strategy

Italy is pushing what it calls a "third way": allowing cars powered by biofuels to count as zero-emission. The main winner would be Eni, the energy giant, which held 13 meetings with the Commission in 18 months and received €1 billion from the European Investment Bank to convert two refineries.

The Parliament's rapporteur on the revision, Massimiliano Salini of Forza Italia and the EPP, proposed raising biofuel credits from 3% to 10%. Environmental groups say the position mirrors industry lobbying.

For consumers, the sums are poor. Driving 100 km on HVO, hydrogenated vegetable oil and the most advanced biofuel, costs about €11.30 in Italy. That is roughly 52% more than charging an EV at €7.40.

The divide runs east-west

The social politics of the transition look very different depending on where you live. The cheapest new EV in Europe, a Dacia Spring at roughly €16,900, costs about seven months of median net salary in Germany. In Hungary, it is close to two years.

France runs a "social leasing" programme offering EVs at €100-200 a month to low-income households, reaching 100,000 families over two years. No eastern EU country has anything comparable.

The adoption gap follows. Denmark, where EVs account for roughly 80% of new car sales, has little to fear from the 2035 deadline. Hungary, where battery factories lost 136 billion forints in 2025 and the government is now blocking further Chinese factory expansion, has every incentive to slow the pace.

What remains open

Neither Parliament nor Council has voted. Trilogue negotiations, the three-way talks between the Commission, Parliament and Council that settle the final text of EU law, are not expected before late 2026.

The seven-country blocking minority is arithmetically real, but fragile. Europe is arguing over the speed of a transition while its battery factories lose money, its workers face retraining without proven models, and the cheapest EVs still come from China.