Trump Seeks Hormuz Cargo Levy

On 6 July, about 45 large vessels moved through the Strait of Hormuz. Four days later, ship-tracking firms counted five (Straits Times). No state had formally shut the waterway, which carries nearly 20% of the world's oil and about a fifth of global LNG trade (EIA). The closure happened in the quieter way global trade often closes: insurers, charterers and shipowners looked at the risk, looked at the premium, and decided passage no longer made commercial sense.

Trump has now turned that market retreat into a legal confrontation. On 13 July, he declared the United States "Guardian of the Hormuz Strait" and proposed taking 20% of all cargo value shipped through it (gCaptain). There is no verified machinery for collecting such a charge. The IMO, the UN body that governs shipping, said the same day that compulsory transit fees in an international strait have no legal basis. Oman, which shares the waterway with Iran, told the IMO Council that transit passage is guaranteed under international law (Maritime Executive). The proposed fee may go nowhere in law. The commercial shutdown is already moving through prices.

The Cost Chain

War-risk premiums for Gulf voyages climbed towards 3% of vessel value, from 2% only days earlier, with some underwriters advising owners to pause transits altogether (Claims Journal). Italian shipping analysts put premiums for VLCCs, very large crude carriers, at roughly 4% of vessel value for a single week, or between $250,000 and $375,000 per passage (TrasportoEuropa). The bill does not stay with the insurer. It passes to the shipowner, then to the charterer, then to the cargo owner. After that, it turns up at the fuel pump, the airport refuelling truck and the supermarket loading dock.

The quickest route into European prices is through refined products rather than crude. BNP Paribas estimates that Asia and the Middle East supplied 23% of Europe's diesel imports and 90% of its jet-fuel imports in 2025 (BNP Paribas). International diesel quotations rose by nearly 10 cents a litre, while petrol moved by only four (Quattroruote). That matters in Ireland as much as anywhere else. Diesel moves haulage, farms and food distribution, carrying cost through the economy before the inflation figures catch up.

Three Governments, One Bind

The same shock is now showing up in fuel markets across Europe. Each government faces the same unlovely choice: soften the blow through tax relief and spend fiscal room, or let consumers absorb the full rise and take the political hit later.

Portugal chose to cushion. Lisbon expected diesel to rise by seven cents a litre in the week from 13 July and increased fuel-tax support through its ISP discount mechanism (Observador, ECO). Ireland let the increase pass through. Fuel retailers expected diesel to rise by about 10 cents a litre on higher wholesale costs, while stressing that supply remained adequate (RTÉ). Hungary has a second problem on top of the first. Diesel was at 608 forint per litre, and a weaker forint against the dollar turns every dollar-priced barrel into a bigger domestic cost (Portfolio, Holtankoljak).

The Missing Evidence

The European Commission's energy security task force said on 13 July that it saw no immediate winter supply problem (European Commission). Most crude moving through Hormuz goes to Asia rather than Europe, and Gulf exporters have some alternative pipelines and ports (LSEG). The calm may be warranted.

What is missing is the evidence citizens would need to test it. During this crisis, no EU member state has published a verifiable breakdown of reserve days, dependence on Hormuz-linked diesel and jet fuel, or the insurance surcharge data behind the reassurances. National energy departments and fuel-market regulators owe the public that accounting. The people deciding whether Hormuz is commercially usable are not waiting for communiqués: insurers are repricing war-risk cover, charterers are pausing voyages, and banks are checking sanctions exposure. They are putting a price on the danger now. European drivers, hauliers and airlines are already paying a bill whose real size is still better understood by the market than by the public.