Turkey seeks EU defence money

When Kaja Kallas landed in Ankara on 30 June with senior EU officials dealing with enlargement and migration, the agenda looked broad enough to be bland: trade, visas, migration and security with Turkey's foreign minister, Hakan Fidan. In the same week, the UN envoy on Cyprus, María Ángela Holguín, pushed back a Brussels meeting until after the NATO summit.

That timing matters. Turkey is putting its return to Cyprus talks into a wider negotiation with the EU. Ankara wants movement on several files at once, and the argument inside the Union is now over how much linkage member states should accept.

Ankara's Shopping List

Turkey has not come to the table with a single request. Diplomatic sources said Fidan pressed for the removal of 2019 restrictive measures, the sanctions linked to Turkey's disputed offshore drilling near Cyprus, along with a formal EU-Turkey Partnership Council, talks on upgrading the customs union, and visa liberalisation (Hurriyet Daily News). The joint statement confirmed discussions on customs-union modernisation, the visa-liberalisation dialogue, border management, energy and fresh high-level talks before the end of the year (MFA Türkiye).

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan then added the item with the sharpest political edge: Turkey's inclusion in European defence initiatives, including SAFE, the EU's new €150 billion defence-spending instrument (Marine & Océans/AFP, Council). That is the hardest ask. It would give a non-member state a route into EU-backed defence finance, with potential gains for Turkey's defence industry. It would also require unanimity in Council, where any one government can stop it.

The files have different locks. Customs-union modernisation needs a Council mandate for negotiations; the Commission proposed one in 2016, and member states have never adopted it (EU trade policy). Visa-free travel depends on Turkey meeting benchmark conditions set years ago (Commission). Technical talks on migration or trade can be restarted with far less political machinery.

Who Can Block What

Cyprus and Greece want the whole EU-Turkey relationship tied to progress on Cyprus. Cypriot president Nikos Christodoulides and European Council president António Costa agreed that EU-Turkey relations cannot move on a separate track from the Cyprus question (Cyprus Mail). Greek deputy foreign minister Tasos Chatzivasileiou put the objection more bluntly: a country that keeps a casus belli, a standing threat of war over Greek territorial waters, against an EU member and occupies part of its territory should not have access to EU defence funding (Proto Thema). Prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis stressed "absolute coordination" between Athens and Nicosia (Newsit).

Their leverage is substantial, but it is not the same across every file. On the customs union and defence access, Athens and Nicosia can block Council decisions. On visa processing, trade dialogue and migration cooperation, they cannot close every channel.

That is where other capitals see room to move. Kallas described Turkey before the Ankara visit as "a key partner on security, migration and energy" (Euronews). Italy's Giorgia Meloni discussed migration and Libya with Erdoğan before NATO, with Italian reporting suggesting Rome favours flexible arrangements over rigid Cyprus-linked deadlines (Il Tempo). Bulgaria, whose border with Turkey became a full Schengen external land frontier in January 2025, needs Ankara on migration and transit (Council).

These governments are not endorsing Ankara's position on Cyprus. Their calculation is more practical. They need Turkey on migration, energy or transport, and they do not want every working channel held until there is a Cyprus breakthrough.

Before the UN Meeting

The next test is expected under UN auspices this summer, bringing the two Cypriot leaders together with Greece, Turkey and the UK to see whether formal negotiations can restart. The last serious attempt, at Crans-Montana in 2017, failed (UN report S/2017/814, Cyprus Mail). The central disagreement remains where it was. Greek Cypriots want a bizonal, bicommunal federation. Turkey and the Turkish Cypriot side argue for sovereign equality or a two-state framework. Holguín's delayed Brussels meeting, now expected in mid-July, is meant to prepare the ground.

The European Council, where EU leaders set the Union's political direction, has settled on a formula: EU-Turkey relations should advance in a "gradual, proportionate and reversible" way, with Cyprus progress kept in view (European Council). The wording was built to keep both camps inside the same sentence. So far, the EU has managed that on paper. The harder fact is that only some parts of the relationship can really be stopped, and Ankara is pushing hardest on the parts that may keep moving.