Turkey Codifies Disputed Maritime Claims as European Powers Sign New Defence Deals

Turkey is moving to turn its contested maritime claims in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean into domestic law. In the same fortnight, three of Europe's largest economies went to Ankara or Istanbul to deepen defence ties with the Turkish state.

The draft "umbrella law" on maritime jurisdiction is expected to reach Turkey's parliament after May 31. It would codify the 1995 casus belli threat against any Greek expansion of territorial waters, treat disputed Aegean islands as "grey zones" without maritime rights, and give the Turkish president power to declare "special status" maritime zones without returning to parliament (Ethnos, Protothema). Turkey has never signed UNCLOS, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea that sets the global rules for maritime borders. That leaves Brussels arguing with Ankara without even a shared legal text beneath the dispute (Libre).

The Arms Bazaar

In the two weeks before that deadline, Belgium, France and Germany moved closer to Turkey on defence.

Belgium sent a 428-person trade delegation to Ankara and Istanbul from May 10-14, led by Queen Mathilde. Defence Minister Theo Francken signed nine defence agreements, said Belgium was interested in Turkish drones, and described Turkey as "a role model" for European defence modernisation (Yeni Safak, BusinessAM).

Francken also backed Turkey's admission to SAFE, Security Action for Europe, the EU's €150 billion defence financing scheme. Greece and Cyprus vetoed Turkish participation in SAFE in October 2025. Belgium now wants that position overturned (Daily Sabah).

France's Safran Electronics signed a strategic partnership with Baykar, Turkey's leading drone manufacturer, in Istanbul on May 12. The agreement replaces Canadian-made sensors on the TB2 drone with French targeting systems, releasing Baykar from Western export restrictions (Opex360).

Three weeks earlier, Emmanuel Macron had stood in Athens and described France's mutual defence clause with Greece as "intangible", extending France's nuclear umbrella to Greek territory (Le Figaro). Paris is therefore promising to defend Greece while helping arm the country threatening it.

Germany resumed its Strategic Dialogue with Turkey on May 18, the first such meeting since 2014. Berlin is also exploring Turkish long-range missiles as a possible replacement for Tomahawks (KAS). Like Belgium, Germany backs Turkey's inclusion in SAFE.

Why Europe Cannot Respond

The EU is not short of formal instruments. It has a targeted sanctions framework created in 2019, the frozen modernisation of the EU-Turkey customs union, and leverage through pre-accession funding. On paper, these are the tools available when a candidate country challenges the sovereignty of member states.

Against Turkey, they do little.

Sanctions need unanimity in the Council, meaning all 27 governments must agree and any single capital can block. Hungary has vetoed Turkey-related measures before. Bulgaria and Romania, both dependent on Turkish cooperation in the Black Sea, are wary of confrontation. The 2016 EU-Turkey migration deal gives Ankara a further lever: Turkey hosts roughly 3.9 million Syrian refugees, and punitive EU action risks pressure at Europe's south-eastern border (CER, Verfassungsblog).

Greece and Cyprus still have one working instrument: the veto. They used it to block Turkey from SAFE and have kept customs union talks frozen. But a veto withholds benefits; it does not impose costs. Turkey lost SAFE access in October 2025 and has not changed a single maritime claim since.

The group pressing to reverse that veto is getting larger. Belgium, Germany, Italy, Spain, Hungary and Poland all support Turkish admission to SAFE, presenting it as NATO alliance logic rather than a concession to Ankara. The same countries buying Turkish weapons are also pushing to give Turkey access to EU defence money.

The NATO Shield

Athens says Turkey's umbrella law will have "no legal effect" under international law. Greek government spokesperson Pavlos Marinakis has called it domestic political theatre (Ethnos). That may be true in a court. It is less comforting at sea.

Turkey is building a domestic legal authorisation for future action in disputed waters. Once passed, the president would not need to return to parliament before moving under that framework.

The NATO summit in Ankara on July 7-8 will come weeks after the law is expected to pass. No EU member state will want a public fight with the host country. Turkey writes its maritime claims into law, then hosts the alliance that keeps Europe from answering collectively. The timing gives Ankara cover.