Washington Targets 60 Economies

Global trade works only when companies can see the rules before the goods leave the factory gate. Washington is again making that difficult. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told CNBC to "expect action soon" on new tariffs under Section 301, the American law that allows the US to punish foreign trade practices it deems unfair. This time the target is roughly 60 economies accused of failing to keep goods made with forced labour out of trade.

Greer said the measures would cover "about 99% of our trade", but gave no timetable, no product list, no rates and no exemptions (CNBC). That absence is not a detail. It is the problem. Firms price contracts, freight and inventory months in advance. European exporters are now having to adjust orders and reroute stock around a tariff regime they have not yet seen.

The damage shows up before collection

A tariff is collected at the border, but the cost moves backwards through the supply chain. If a European product enters the US with a surcharge attached, someone must carry it: the American buyer, the European seller, or the consumer. In practice, the bill is split unevenly and quietly.

Company results are already showing the pressure. Volvo Group reported a net tariff hit of SEK −1.2 billion (about €105 million) in the second quarter of 2026, more than half of it from construction equipment, with another SEK −1.1 billion expected in the third quarter (MarketScreener, Placera).

French wine tells the same story in a different accent. In the first four months of 2026, volumes shipped to the US rose 10%, while the value of those shipments fell 11% (Vinetur). More bottles, less money. That points to discounting or a shift towards cheaper lines. Exchange rates and weaker US demand may explain part of it, but the direction fits the pattern of tariff pressure eating into margins.

Small firms absorb the sharpest cuts

Germany is most exposed on the industrial side. The US was the biggest single market for German machinery exports in 2023, worth €28 billion, according to the VDMA industry association (Finanzen/VDMA). Cars and parts face separate US measures aimed at the wider supply chain (GTAI).

Italy’s figures show where the pain lands first. Strip out pharmaceuticals, and Italian manufacturing exports to the US fell in the first quarter of 2026. Sectors dominated by micro and small firms dropped 8.3%, with Lombardy down 12.3%, Veneto down 6.4% and Emilia-Romagna down 3.1% (Confartigianato). These are the districts of food, fashion, furniture, eyewear and jewellery. For firms like that, a few points off the margin can mean cancelled orders, not just a less comfortable quarter.

Ireland’s headline number needs more care. Exports to the US were down 55.9% in May, but much of that reflects US multinationals moving intellectual property through Irish legal entities rather than Irish-made goods leaving Irish plants (RTÉ/CSO, Baldwin). This is why Irish GDP can mislead so badly. The real exposure is not the accounting flow that flatters the national accounts, but the physical pharma and medtech plants that actually ship product across the Atlantic.

Brussels asks for exemptions first

The European Commission has started with the practical route: exemptions. It has submitted a list covering around €115 billion of EU exports, about 20% of goods trade with the US, seeking carve-outs for products including wine, cheese, olive oil, agricultural machinery and semiconductor equipment (Le Parisien).

Brussels has heavier instruments available. The Anti-Coercion Instrument, an EU regulation designed for cases where foreign governments use economic pressure, would allow retaliation. WTO cases and counter-tariffs are also possible. But these are legal machines, not switches. They take months to assemble and use (EUR-Lex).

For exporters, the most worrying part may be the legal route Washington chooses. Section 301 is harder to unwind than the emergency import surcharges used earlier this year (19 U.S.C. § 2411). If the new package is built around forced-labour enforcement, it could rest on a legal base that survives beyond one administration.

That changes the calculation. A temporary tariff is a shock. A durable legal framework becomes a planning cost: contracts repriced, supply chains redesigned, and boardrooms asking whether the US market is still worth the risk. The schedule remains unpublished. Every European firm shipping across the Atlantic is being asked to price against a target it cannot see.