Zelenskyy rejects Merz’s EU halfway deal

Friedrich Merz has tried to offer Ukraine a new place in Europe. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has answered that Ukraine already knows the place it wants: full EU membership. The German Chancellor’s proposal for "associate membership" was rejected by the Ukrainian president as “unfair”, because Kyiv sees the offer for what it is: a political category designed to manage the consequences of Ukraine joining, without yet granting the full prize.

The argument is about more than symbolism. Ukraine inside the EU would change how power is counted, how budgets are divided, and how the Union’s centre of gravity works. Paris and Berlin understand that. So does Kyiv.

A Status the Treaties Don't Recognize

Merz’s letter of May 18 to EU leaders proposes a status the EU treaties do not currently recognise. "Associate membership" appears nowhere in the Treaty on European Union.

The plan would give Ukraine a voting seat in the European Council, where heads of government set the EU’s direction, and in the Council of the EU, where ministers negotiate laws. Several outlets have described this as a non-voting arrangement, but Merz’s letter specifies participation with a vote (Reuters, DGAP). Ukraine would also get a European Commissioner without portfolio and associate members in the European Parliament, both with limited influence.

Merz also wants to extend Article 42.7, the EU’s mutual defence clause, which obliges member states to assist another member if it is attacked. He argues this can be done through "a strong political agreement", without changing the treaties. Brussels diplomats are not convinced. "I don't see how this could work from a legal point of view. You would need to change the treaties," one told Euronews. The European Commission has avoided giving a ruling, leaving the question with heads of government (Ukrainska Pravda).

Why Full Membership Frightens Paris and Berlin

Full Ukrainian membership would alter the machinery of EU decision-making. With about 44 million people, Ukraine would become the fifth-largest member state. Under qualified majority voting, where laws need 55% of countries representing 65% of the EU population, that population weight matters. A DGAP analysis found Germany and France have failed to align their enlargement strategies, and that Ukraine’s entry would weaken the Franco-German bloc’s ability to shape outcomes.

Merz’s proposal would bring part of that shift forward: a Council vote for Ukraine, without access to the EU budget, agricultural subsidies or structural funds. That is the delicate bargain. Kyiv would get political presence, while existing members would avoid the full financial consequences of accession. An internal Council analysis cited by the Financial Times estimated full membership would make France a net contributor to the Common Agricultural Policy for the first time (Poland Watch).

French public opinion is the coldest in Europe on enlargement. Emmanuel Macron has asked the Commission for a "precise calendar" for Ukraine’s accession, but made no firm commitment (Le Monde).

The Consolation Prize Zelenskyy Won't Accept

Merz has linked the idea directly to peace diplomacy. His letter says associate membership "will help facilitate the ongoing peace talks." In April, he suggested Zelenskyy tell Ukrainians: "I opened the way to Europe for you." The offer is meant to give Kyiv a European anchor that could help sell territorial concessions in any peace settlement.

Zelenskyy can see the danger. Even with Council voting rights, associate membership would leave Ukraine outside the EU budget and outside the farm supports that matter so much in accession politics. It would also lack the legal permanence of treaty-based membership. With Viktor Orbán gone from power in Hungary after the April election, the main veto threat against Ukraine’s accession has been removed. From Kyiv’s point of view, accepting a halfway house now could weaken the case for full membership later.

Poland sees Article 42.7 as the real prize: a European defence guarantee less dependent on a NATO umbrella that Polish analysts increasingly regard as unreliable (Polish analysts argue). Polish farmers, though, fear Ukrainian agricultural competition. Slovakia’s Robert Fico rejected the idea outright, saying "Either we admit someone to the EU, or we don't", only weeks after promising Zelenskyy full support for Ukraine’s EU path.

The June European Council does not have enlargement on its formal agenda. The Commission’s pre-enlargement reform package, which is meant to explain how an EU of more than 30 members would actually function, remains unpublished after repeated delays. Ireland’s foreign minister warned that associate membership "risks leaving Ukraine in limbo."

Zelenskyy’s calculation is that Europe needs Ukraine inside the institution more than Ukraine needs a substitute status outside it. If associate membership becomes comfortable for Europe’s capitals, the pressure to finish full accession will ease. For Kyiv, that comfort is the threat.