Berlin leaves EU outside Ukraine talks

Russia fired a nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile at the outskirts of Kyiv on 23-24 May, the third time it has used the weapon during the war. Two days later, Ukraine's chief negotiator was inside the German chancellery with the national security advisers of Germany, France and the United Kingdom, sketching a peace process the United States has effectively left frozen.

The Bombardment and the Refusal

The attack was Russia's largest bombardment of 2026: around 90 missiles, including 36 ballistic missiles, and 600 drones aimed at Kyiv. At least four people were killed and about 100 injured. The Institute for the Study of War estimated the strike package cost Moscow roughly $361 million (ISW). Russia's Foreign Ministry then ordered foreign diplomats to leave Kyiv, saying it would begin "systematic strikes against Ukrainian military-industrial facilities" (Al Jazeera).

European capitals refused to move. France's foreign ministry spokesperson called the demand "a new intimidation" and said Paris would not evacuate (Le Figaro). In Berlin, the Political Director of the Auswärtiges Amt, Germany's foreign ministry, summoned Russian ambassador Nechayev. That was a pointed but controlled response: senior enough to signal seriousness, below ministerial level to avoid a full diplomatic escalation (Deutschlandfunk). Poland warned that any strike on its embassy would be treated as "a deliberate act of aggression" (Polsat News). More than 50 countries condemned Russia at the UN Security Council (Kyiv Post, UN).

Washington sounded different. Secretary of State Rubio did not condemn the strikes and noted that Kyiv has been "a very dangerous place" (RFE/RL). He also confirmed that American peace talks are "frozen."

The E3 Moves Fast

On 26 May, Ukraine's chief negotiator Rustem Umerov met in Berlin with the E3, the format bringing together Germany, France and the United Kingdom through their national security advisers (Ukrinform). Germany's Günter Sautter hosted the meeting. Chancellor Merz stayed away, a sign that Berlin wanted the channel open without placing the chancellor's full political weight behind it.

The E3 is not an EU body. It has no treaty, no secretariat and no legal mandate. It was created in 2003 to negotiate with Iran over its nuclear programme, bringing together Europe's three permanent members of the UN Security Council. Brexit did not end Britain's role because the format sits outside EU structures.

That is exactly why it can move quickly. The EU's Common Foreign and Security Policy, the bloc's joint diplomacy framework, normally needs unanimity among 27 governments. For a country like Malta, that unanimity rule is one of the few hard guarantees that small states are formally heard. The E3 works differently: three capitals can meet within days. Zelensky proposed formalising an "E3 plus Ukraine" channel on 20 May (newsukraine.rbc.ua).

Speed Costs Legitimacy

The price is legitimacy. Poland, Ukraine's largest regional military supporter, is not in the room. Neither is Italy, the EU's third-largest economy. Warsaw's objection is not vanity. Poland's size, geography and role in arming Ukraine make it a natural participant in any negotiation involving Europe, Kyiv and Moscow (Rzeczpospolita). E3 capitals answer that smaller groups negotiate faster. Polish officials have not publicly targeted the 26 May meeting itself, but the tension is clear.

The split is also about substance. France and Italy favour opening diplomatic engagement with Moscow. Germany, Poland and the Baltic states resist talks before Russian withdrawal, arguing that this would reward aggression (Euronews). EU foreign ministers discussed appointing a formal Special Representative for Ukraine at the Gymnich meeting, an informal ministerial gathering with no binding decisions, in Limassol on 27-28 May. But the EU's spokesperson lowered expectations, saying an envoy makes sense only "once Russia has demonstrated a genuine willingness to end the war" (EEAS).

With the formal EU track stuck, the E3's informal channel is filling the gap. That may suit Berlin, Paris and London. It is less comfortable for the states most exposed to Russia, including Poland and the Baltics, which remain outside the format discussing their security. Poland arms Ukraine's frontline. Italy funds reconstruction. Neither sits where peace terms are being drafted. For smaller EU states, Malta included, the lesson is familiar: when speed replaces the EU table, influence moves from rules to weight.