Croatia Ends ECB Big Four Grip

For the entire life of the European Central Bank, four countries treated its Executive Board almost as reserved territory. Germany, France, Italy and Spain held the seats through an informal understanding that appears nowhere in the treaties, but which no outsider managed to break. On 1 June, that changes. Boris Vujčić, governor of Croatia's central bank, becomes ECB Vice-President, replacing Spain's Luis de Guindos. Croatia joined the euro in January 2023. Since the ECB was founded in 1998, no country outside the Big Four has held a seat on the six-member Executive Board, the body that runs the bank day to day and has permanent votes on interest rates (Global Banking & Finance, Euronews).

Spain's calculated retreat

Spain did not fight for the seat. Pedro Sánchez's government chose not to put forward a candidate, pointing to the informal rule against one national succeeding another from the same country. The real calculation lies in 2027, when three Board seats fall vacant, including the presidency. Christine Lagarde's single eight-year term ends in October that year. Spain wants the top job.

Its name is Pablo Hernández de Cos, former governor of the Bank of Spain and now head of the Bank for International Settlements. De Guindos presented Spain's exit as a pause, not a loss: "Spain is the fourth-largest economy in the euro area, and I am convinced it will secure a seat" (Global Banking & Finance). The risk is domestic. Sánchez governs without a parliamentary majority, has been weakened by regional defeats, and the current Bank of Spain governor is reported to be working against Hernández de Cos's candidacy.

Hawks took the opening

Vujčić won because his monetary politics suited the moment. The Eurogroup, where eurozone finance ministers coordinate policy, nominated him in January after three rounds of voting, ahead of Finland's Olli Rehn and Portugal's Mário Centeno. His hawkish position, favouring higher interest rates to keep inflation under control, aligned with Germany, Austria and the Baltic states at a point when they wanted that voice inside the Board.

Centeno, a dove who favours looser monetary policy, publicly criticised the Portuguese government for moving too late in support of his candidacy. That was an unusual public rebuke from a sitting central bank governor. It also showed that ECB appointments are no longer only a matter of national lobbying. The split between hawks and doves now matters just as much.

The presidency race, and who doesn't get a vote

The bigger contest comes in October 2027. The ECB presidency is chosen by the European Council, where national leaders meet, and requires a qualified majority: 55% of member states representing 65% of the EU population. No single country has a veto. Germany and France, however, can each build blocking coalitions. Spain, the Netherlands and Germany all have possible candidates in play.

The European Parliament is absent from the decision. The only EU body directly elected by eurozone citizens has no formal vote on who runs the institution that sets interest rates and shapes borrowing costs. It holds hearings and issues non-binding opinions. The power to appoint remains with national governments. For Malta, in the euro since 2008, this is not remote institutional choreography. ECB decisions feed through to mortgages, business lending and savings accounts across the island.

Croatia's seat proves that smaller eurozone states can break through when the political alignment is right. Whether that becomes a lasting shift depends on 2027. If Spain returns to a top position and the Big Four close ranks again, Vujčić's appointment will be remembered as a temporary breach in a repaired monopoly. If smaller economies keep competing, the ECB's internal power map will change for the first time since the euro was launched.