EU Needs 1.3 More LNG Tankers Daily

EU gas storage stood at roughly 42% of capacity in early June, about 14 percentage points below the five-year seasonal average and well short of the 51% recorded a year ago (AGSI/GIE, WBJ). For Malta, this is the gas market behind the electricity price debate: Europe has to rebuild its winter cushion while buying LNG, liquefied natural gas shipped by tanker, in a market already squeezed by Middle East disruption, tighter Russian sanctions and strong Asian demand. The bill will move through state budgets, energy-intensive industry and, eventually, some households. How quickly it arrives depends on the country.

The carry trade that isn't working

Gas storage is meant to be a seasonal trade. Companies buy in spring, pay to keep the gas underground, and sell in winter when prices are normally higher. The gap between summer and winter prices, known as the spread, should cover the storage cost and leave a margin. When that gap is too narrow, commercial operators wait. That is the problem Europe is facing now.

ICIS estimates that, if today’s slow injection rates continue, Europe would reach only about 73% by November. To hit 90%, the legal target under the EU’s storage regulation (EUR-Lex), injections would have to rise by roughly 4 bcm per month. That is equivalent to about 1.3 extra LNG cargoes every day.

Brussels is already leaving itself room. The European Commission says the updated rules give member states a two-month window, from October to December, to reach the 90% target. Officials have also kept pointing to 80% as enough for winter security. That figure is less a slogan than a working comfort level, meant to avoid the panic buying that pushed prices to record highs in 2022.

Squeezed from both sides

The outside supply picture makes even 80% harder to reach at a decent price. The IEA estimates that the Middle East conflict has removed roughly 120 bcm from global LNG supply through 2030, as damaged export infrastructure and shipping disruption delay new capacity (Energy Connects, Baltic Exchange). At the same time, the EU’s Russian gas phaseout law banned short-term Russian LNG contracts from 25 April 2026, with pipeline contracts following in June and all long-term Russian gas ending by late 2027 (S&P Global). Europe is closing off the very supply option it once used when storage looked thin.

If Asian buyers pay more for flexible LNG cargoes, Europe has to lift the price on the Dutch TTF, the trading hub that sets the European wholesale gas benchmark, to pull tankers its way. TTF was trading around €50/MWh in early June (Berliner Zeitung), while Spain’s MIBGAS day-ahead price was close behind at €48.80/MWh (MIBGAS). ACER, the EU energy regulator, warned that filling storage to 90% would require roughly 13% more LNG imports than in 2025 (MondoVisione).

Who pays depends on where you live

The EU average hides large national gaps. The Netherlands had just 16.1% storage on 1 June (Energievergelijk), while Spain’s regasification plants were 72% full (Europa Press). Germany was at 34–35%, about 20 points below its own seasonal norm (NDR).

Governments are intervening, but not through the same mechanism. Germany abolished its storage levy on 1 January 2026 and moved the cost to the federal budget, so taxpayers rather than gas customers now underwrite storage security (FGS). The Netherlands has a €20bn loan facility allowing state-backed EBN to step in when commercial filling slows (DutchNews). Hungary’s fixed-price system makes state-owned MVM absorb higher import costs until the government changes course, a fiscal buffer that holds until it does not (HVG).

Energy-intensive industry feels the shock first. BASF’s chief executive warned that European gas prices are now structurally set by global LNG markets rather than pipeline contracts (Zeit). Households feel it later, through contract renewals and national policy choices. In Spain, the route is electricity: when gas-fired plants set the marginal power price, meaning the cost of the last unit needed to meet demand, wholesale gas prices flow straight into bills. Spain’s regulated PVPC electricity tariff rose 15% in May (OCU).

The winners are LNG suppliers, flexible cargo owners and storage operators, meaning anyone able to sell into Europe’s urgency. The losers are industrial users competing in global markets and governments trying to bridge the gap between market prices and what voters can bear. Europe can probably avoid a physical shortage this winter. The real question is the price of that security, and whether poorer member states can afford to pay for it in the way Germany and the Netherlands can.