Hormuz Truce Leaves Tankers Stranded

Iran and the United States are moving towards a 60-day ceasefire framework for the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage that carries roughly 20% of the world's seaborne oil. Brent crude fell 4.5% on the news, to around $98.83 per barrel (n-tv).

For Malta, this is the sort of crisis that arrives first through shipping costs, then through fuel bills, then through the price of almost everything that reaches the island by sea. Three months after Iran shut the strait in retaliation for US-Israeli strikes, diplomacy is moving faster than the physical clean-up. A signed deal can be announced in a day. Restoring energy flows takes months, possibly years, and European consumers and taxpayers will pay for the gap.

840 Ships and a Minefield

A ceasefire only begins the logistical work. More than 600 tankers are stranded inside the Persian Gulf, with another 240 waiting outside, according to Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser (CNBC). Vessels rerouted around Africa's Cape of Good Hope added roughly 3,800 nautical miles per leg, cutting effective fleet capacity by about a third (straits.live). Those ships still have to finish their current voyages before they can return to normal routes.

Then come the mines. The Pentagon told Congress that full clearance could take six months (Washington Post). Iran itself cannot account for all the mines it deployed (IndexBox). Until the seabed is certified safe, insurers will not cut their rates. War risk premiums, the surcharge insurers add for vessels entering conflict zones, rose from 0.125% of hull value to as much as 5% within days of the February strikes (Property Casualty 360). As Insurance Business Magazine put it: "A ceasefire won't reopen the insurance market — not yet" (Insurance Business Magazine).

Crude may reach importing markets in two to six weeks. Refined products will take longer, because Gulf refineries need weeks to restart. The IEA expects the global economy to return to its pre-conflict path only by Q4 2026 at the earliest (Gulf News).

Who Actually Pays for This

Romania's inflation reached 10.71% in April, with fuel prices up roughly 35% year-on-year (Agerpres). Within the eurozone, the 20 countries sharing the euro, Spain recorded the highest inflation at 3.2%, with energy accounting for more than 60% of that pressure (Merca2). Dutch diesel reached €2.37 per litre, the highest price in the EU (IRU).

The losers are households, hauliers, importers and governments trying to cushion the blow. The winners are easier to name. Shell reported Q1 profits of €4.84 billion, up 20% year-on-year, with an estimated €1 billion tied to the Hormuz crisis (NPO Radio 1). TotalEnergies posted a 51% jump in net profit (Made-in.be). Across six major oil companies, Oxfam estimates combined 2026 profits of roughly €93 billion (Euronews).

Governments are absorbing part of the cost. Spain cut fuel VAT, the sales tax on fuel, from 21% to 10% (Spanish Ministry of Finance). The Netherlands committed €927 million in targeted relief but avoided a broad fuel tax cut, because cheaper fuel can push up demand when supply is still tight (PWC). Romania capped retail margins and restricted fuel exports (Radio România). These measures soften the hit, but they do not remove the bottleneck.

The Toll Road Iran Wants to Keep

Iran and Oman are negotiating a permanent transit toll for the strait, presented as payment for "special services" rather than a tariff, a framing designed to avoid international maritime law restrictions (Iran International, Livemint). At roughly $1 per barrel, it would generate an estimated $7.3 billion per year for Iran (Al Jazeera). The proposed Persian Gulf Strait Authority already accepts payment in Chinese yuan (Euronews).

That toll sits beside a larger financial question. The White House says no money changes hands in the emerging deal. Axios has reported that the framework includes up to $20 billion in unfrozen Iranian assets as part of a uranium swap arrangement. If Iran secures both the frozen assets and permanent toll revenue, Tehran leaves the crisis with far more income than it had before it began.

The IEA has warned that strategic oil reserves, the emergency stocks governments keep for supply disruptions, will enter a "red zone" by July or August unless flows normalise (Cinco Días). Refilling the record 400-million-barrel drawdown will then add 1.8 million barrels per day of demand, competing for the same constrained supply (IEA, BloombergNEF). Markets are pricing the political deal. The physical aftermath is still at sea.