Hormuz crossings fall to 12

Commodity-vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz fell from 29 on Saturday to 12 on Sunday after fresh attacks on ships in the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman (Punch, WSJ). The strait carries about a fifth of the world’s traded oil and liquefied natural gas (CNN). Ships have not stopped moving, but the commercial signal is still ugly: the five-day average before the weekend was just 27% of the pre-disruption baseline of roughly 110 daily crossings (PortNews).

For Europe, and for import-dependent economies like Malta, this is first a shock to prices and confidence rather than an immediate shortage of fuel. The impact begins before any cargo fails to arrive.

Freight and Insurance Jump First

The cost chain from Hormuz to European factories is short. When fewer captains and shipowners are willing to cross safely, freight and insurance prices move within days. Tanker-hire rates on Gulf routes rose to about $190,500 per day from $106,500 a week earlier, with some cargoes earning nearly $470,000 per day (Indian Express). War-risk insurance, the extra premium paid to sail through a conflict zone, is at around 3% of a vessel’s value. That is below the 5% peak, but still twelve times the roughly 0.25% charged before the conflict (IndexBox). More than 1,000 ships remain stuck in the Gulf waiting for safe passage (n-tv).

Those costs feed into oil, gas and chemical shipments as contracts are booked. European producers then face higher input prices. Some pass the increase on to customers. Others absorb it and postpone investment.

The ECB, the European Central Bank that sets interest rates for the 20 eurozone countries, estimates that this energy shock could cut eurozone growth by 0.4 percentage points, and has raised its deposit rate to 2.25% (ECB, Boursorama/Reuters). Its concern is that companies and households start pricing in permanently higher costs, turning a supply disruption into stickier inflation.

Italy's Factories Feel It First

Italy is where the factory-level strain is clearest. Steelworks in Brescia are considering shutting furnaces during peak electricity hours. A local industry survey found 64% of firms facing raw-material cost increases, with rerouted shipments adding up to 18 days of delay (Giornale di Brescia). Italy’s SME lobby reported gas prices up 38% and electricity up 11% since the crisis began (Confartigianato).

Poland’s exposure comes more slowly through fertiliser. Domestic urea prices remain elevated, and because fertilisers account for up to half of farm costs, food-price inflation becomes a delayed but real route for the shock (Top Agrar). In the Netherlands, TTF, Europe’s main gas benchmark for next-month delivery, fell to around €41.68 per megawatt-hour as some LNG tanker movement resumed (Baird Maritime). Dutch analysts are treating that relief as fragile while freight and insurance remain high.

The winners are easy to identify: shipowners and brokers collecting inflated charter rates, and insurers repricing war-risk cover. The losers are energy-intensive manufacturers, small firms without hedging, meaning pre-purchased price protection, and eventually consumers as the extra cost moves through supply chains.

Ship Counts Don't Tell the Whole Story

There is one important caution. Ship counts are not tonnage. Three large tankers alone carried 4.1 million barrels out of the Gulf in a single day, so a handful of loaded vessels can matter more than dozens of smaller or empty ones (New Indian Express). UBS expects nearly 80% of disrupted oil supply to return within three months, and pipeline alternatives from Saudi Arabia and the UAE could bypass the strait entirely for some flows (CNN).

The next week will show whether this is a passing scare or a cost shock with staying power. If seven-day crossing averages recover and war-risk premiums keep falling, the weekend drop will look contained. If vessel counts remain volatile and industrial buyers report delayed or repriced inputs, Europe will not be facing a shortage story. It will be facing a cost story that factories, consumers and central bankers cannot afford to ignore.