Magyar Unblocks Ukraine For €16.4 Billion

Péter Magyar arrived in Berlin on June 2 carrying the kind of leverage small EU states understand well: a veto that can stop a European file until the price is settled. In his case, it was Hungary's inherited block on Ukraine's EU membership. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz received Hungary's new prime minister with military honours and called him "a great sign of hope for our times" (ZDF). Magyar is turning Viktor Orbán's obstruction into diplomatic credit, while Brussels pays to reopen the route.

The sequence that was not a deal

Magyar says there was no bargain. "There was absolutely no link between the unfreezing of the funds and opening the first chapter of the Ukraine talks," he told Euronews on May 29.

The calendar is less tidy. On May 18, Hungary's foreign minister announced expert-level talks with Kyiv on minority rights for ethnic Hungarians in Zakarpattia (444.hu). On May 29, the Commission released €16.4 billion in Hungarian funds that had been blocked under Orbán over rule-of-law violations. By June 2, diplomatic sources were saying Hungary would not block Ukraine's first accession negotiation cluster, the step Orbán had held up for more than two years (Eurointegration).

The result is clear even if the choreography is denied. Magyar gets the money. Kyiv gets movement. Brussels gets proof that enlargement has not stalled permanently.

Magyar's condition, legally binding guarantees on Hungarian-language education in Transcarpathia, gives him protection at home against Fidesz claims that he gave way on migration and anti-corruption reforms. An ECFR survey found 73% of Hungarians expect him to bring frozen EU funds back to Hungary (Népszava). He has chosen to meet that expectation first.

Fico without a partner

The leader left most exposed is in Bratislava. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and Orbán had worked as a blocking pair inside the EU, coordinating veto threats on Ukraine sanctions, energy policy and accession talks. That arrangement ended when Orbán lost the April election.

Slovak analysts now describe Fico's government as operating on "failed assumptions" about Brussels conspiring against it, when the problem is self-imposed isolation (Aktuality.sk).

Fico still has his veto. EU accession requires unanimity, meaning agreement from all 27 member states, at every formal stage. But using it alone is more costly than using it with Orbán beside him. Slovakia's own foreign minister has admitted that Budapest, not Bratislava, was the real blocker of accession talks (STVR). Fico has not formally threatened a solo veto, though he links broader Ukraine cooperation to the resumption of Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline.

Magyar is also changing the regional arithmetic around him. He has invited Romania, Croatia, Slovenia and Austria to join an expanded Visegrád format, the Central European grouping that traditionally includes Hungary, Poland, Czechia and Slovakia, with a summit planned for June 23 (Digi24). If that happens, Fico will find himself facing a regional club rebuilt around him rather than with him.

The June test

The real test comes at the intergovernmental conference in Luxembourg on June 15–16. EU ambassadors must first agree a common position in COREPER, the committee where member states negotiate before ministers vote. The General Affairs Council then formally adopts it (Carnegie Endowment).

The aim is to open Cluster 1 for both Ukraine and Moldova. This is the part of the accession process covering rule of law, judicial reform and fundamental rights. In EU terms, it is the file that tests whether a candidate state can be trusted with the legal and institutional obligations of membership.

As of June 2, Budapest's position was still formally open. Magyar told reporters he was "very optimistic" about concluding minority-rights talks "this week" and signalled that he was ready to meet Zelenskyy (n-tv, Euronews). But the same ECFR survey found 54% of Hungarians still oppose opening accession talks with Ukraine. Magyar may have removed the EU-level blockage. He has not yet carried his voters with him.