Pentagon Cuts NATO Reinforcement Pledges

For 75 years, NATO worked on a bargain Malta watched from outside the room but lived inside all the same: the United States guaranteed Europe's defence, and Europe hosted American forces. That bargain is now being dismantled in military planning documents, with Washington pulling troops out of Europe while reducing the wartime reinforcement pledges on which NATO's defence plans depend.

On 19 May, SACEUR General Alexus Grynkewich, NATO's supreme allied commander in Europe, told alliance defence chiefs that "additional redeployments should absolutely be expected" (Stars and Stripes). In the same week, the Pentagon moved to formally cut US contributions to the NATO Force Model, the classified system that sets how many troops each ally must make available for wartime deployment, according to three sources cited by Reuters (Military Times).

The visible part has already removed 5,000 troops from Europe, including a cancelled armoured brigade rotation to Poland and a long-range missile battalion from Germany (Defense News). The less visible part is more serious: it reduces the Force Model itself, the mechanism that determines how many reinforcements would arrive in a crisis. NATO's regional defence plans, agreed at the 2023 Vilnius summit, were built around specific US commitments. If those commitments are cut, the plans no longer add up.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte described the shift as "expected" and "only right" (Brussels Signal). Grynkewich put the deadline for European self-sufficiency at "certainly by 2035" (Breaking Defense). That leaves Europe with a five-to-nine-year gap: the old American guarantee is being thinned out before the European replacement exists.

Iran Drains the Stockpile

The US war with Iran, Operation Epic Fury, launched in February 2026, has used up 45 to 80 percent of several categories of US precision munitions, according to CSIS (CSIS). The Pentagon has told the UK, Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, and Norway to expect "serious delays" in deliveries of HIMARS rockets, NASAMS interceptors, and Javelin missiles (Euromaidanpress).

Europe is therefore losing two American assets at once: soldiers stationed on the continent, and the weapons stockpiles that were meant to sustain them in a crisis. For EU states outside NATO, including Malta, this still matters because Europe's security umbrella is shaped by NATO capacity, not by EU declarations.

Germany Hit, Eastern Flank Exposed

Germany has taken the sharpest hit. Chancellor Merz had publicly criticised US conduct of the Iran war, reportedly telling a German audience his children should not move to America. Washington then withdrew 5,000 troops from German soil and cancelled the planned Tomahawk cruise missile deployment. Merz admitted on 19 May that the missile deal is effectively dead (NTZ).

Germany's harder problem is not money but people. The Bundeswehr has 120,000 active soldiers, against a NATO requirement of roughly 280,000 by 2030. Berlin has budgeted €108 billion for defence in 2026, but a budget line does not produce recruits. A May survey found that only 41% of Germans still see the US as an ally (YouGov).

On NATO's eastern flank, Washington's withdrawal has split allies into different categories. Poland, which spends 4.48% of GDP on defence, sent officials to consult Deputy Defense Secretary Elbridge Colby, the author of a doctrine he calls "NATO 3.0". The idea is simple: Europeans should take over Europe's conventional defence so the US can shift forces towards China (Defence24).

Poland has been branded a "model ally". But its cancelled 4,000-troop brigade rotation remains cancelled, and equipment has arrived in Polish ports without the soldiers meant to operate it.

Estonia's foreign minister called the US decisions "uncoordinated" and urged allies to "urgently determine the reasoning and next steps" (ERR). Romania has moved differently, offering to host temporary US equipment and winning praise from Washington for opening bases during the Iran campaign.

July in Ankara

The NATO leaders' summit on 7-8 July will show whether these Force Model cuts become formal alliance commitments. Congressional resistance may slow the process. Republican hawks on the Armed Services committees have threatened consequences if the Pentagon takes US troop numbers in Europe below the statutory floor of 76,000 (Notus).

But Colby's argument does not depend on Trump. The view that Europe must handle its own conventional defence so America can face China predates him and would likely survive him.

The Americans are leaving. Grynkewich has confirmed the direction of travel. What European capitals do between now and 2035 will decide whether this remains a planning gap or becomes a security crisis.