SoftBank’s €75 billion French AI bet

Seventy-five billion euro is the figure Japan's SoftBank put on the table for AI data centres in northern France, announced at the Choose France summit at Versailles. If it happens, it would be the largest single AI infrastructure deal signed in Europe, almost matching the cumulative €87 billion attracted by all nine Choose France summits since 2018. The politics are clear. The delivery is less so.

What 5 Gigawatts Actually Means

The heart of the deal is 5 gigawatts of data centre capacity. Five gigawatts running continuously is roughly half Belgium's peak electricity demand. All of it would go into training and running AI models.

France currently has just 1.5 GW of installed data centre capacity. SoftBank would quadruple that. The first phase, worth €45 billion, aims for 3.1 GW across three northern French sites by 2031: Dunkirk, Bosquel and Bouchain, where EDF is converting a decommissioned thermal plant into a data centre site. Schneider Electric will build a roboticised factory at Dunkirk's port to manufacture power modules locally.

For Maltese readers, the key point is not the glamour of AI. It is electricity. Data centres consume power at a scale that turns grid policy into industrial policy. France has what most European neighbours do not: dozens of nuclear reactors producing constant, weather-independent electricity. SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son said the quiet part directly: "The fact that the country is an energy producer and exporter is absolutely crucial for infrastructure investments in artificial intelligence."

Ireland shows the other side of that equation. Irish data centres now consume 22% of national electricity, more than all urban households combined, and new grid connections are frozen until 2028. Across Europe's most attractive data centre locations, waiting times stretch to 7-13 years. The countries that can guarantee power will host the machines. The others will host the debate.

The Man Who Lost WeWork and Sold Nvidia

SoftBank's record makes the French pledge a risky one. The Vision Fund lost $32 billion after backing WeWork, whose $47 billion valuation collapsed before it reached public markets. SoftBank also owned 4.9% of Nvidia at $4 per share, then sold the entire stake in 2019 to cover losses. That holding would be worth roughly $40 billion today.

Son came back through one very large bet. SoftBank invested more than $30 billion in OpenAI, and in fiscal year 2026 the Vision Fund posted $46 billion in gains, with 92% tied to OpenAI's rising valuation. S&P downgraded SoftBank's credit outlook to negative, warning that this concentration could weaken its financial flexibility. If OpenAI's valuation falls, the money behind France's data centres becomes less solid.

There is also the matter of Son's promises. In 2016, he promised tens of billions in US investment to the incoming Trump administration, channelled through the Vision Fund before it imploded. This time the wording is cautious: "up to" €75 billion, a "commitment to develop", with the second phase still lacking locations or timelines.

Seed Money vs. the Global Arms Race

The deal exposes Europe's structural weakness in AI infrastructure. Germany, the continent's largest economy, has answered the race with a €125 million programme for frontier AI labs through its innovation agency SPRIND. SoftBank's first phase alone is 360 times larger.

The comparison becomes harsher outside Europe. The four largest US technology companies plan to spend a combined €650 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026 alone. SoftBank's five-year commitment is about 11% of one year of American tech giant spending.

France is betting that nuclear baseload, meaning constant round-the-clock power that does not depend on the weather, combined with fast-tracked permits and state-backed land, gives it an advantage no neighbour can easily copy. The energy case is strong. The financial case depends on Son keeping the money available, OpenAI keeping its valuation, and grid connections arriving on time. In Europe, the grid is often where industrial ambition meets its first hard limit.