Trump Weighs Turkey’s F-35 Return

The F-35 is more than a stealth fighter. It is one of Washington's sharpest instruments of alliance discipline. At the NATO summit, Donald Trump said he had not yet decided whether Turkey should regain access to the aircraft (USA Today, The Hill). The uncertainty is useful to him. Because the United States controls entry into the programme, it can decide which allies receive NATO's most sensitive military technology and which remain outside the door.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned Kyriakos Mitsotakis not to "make the same mistake as Netanyahu" by opposing Turkey's return to the programme. Mitsotakis replied that Greece would not tell Washington where to sell weapons, but described Turkey's standing threat of war if Greece extends its Aegean territorial waters to 12 nautical miles as "an anachronism" (Euronews Greece). Both leaders knew where the real audience sat. The decision will be made in Washington.

How the lock works

Greece is already inside the system. In January 2024, the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency, the Pentagon body that handles foreign arms sales, notified Congress of a possible sale of up to 40 F-35A aircraft to Athens (DSCA). Six months later, Greece signed its letter of acceptance, formally joining the programme (Lockheed Martin).

Turkey is outside it because of a choice Ankara made in 2019. After accepting Russia's S-400 air-defence system, it was removed by the Pentagon. The argument was technical but politically devastating: the F-35 "cannot coexist with a Russian intelligence-collection platform" capable of learning how to detect the aircraft's stealth profile (Pentagon). Washington then sanctioned Turkey's defence procurement agency under CAATSA, the American law that penalises major transactions with Russia's defence sector (State Department).

Trump can show warmth towards Erdogan, but CAATSA is law, not a mood in the Oval Office. 18 members of Congress have publicly opposed Turkey's reinstatement, and a congressional resolution has been filed to block related transfers (Protothema, RIK). A reversal would require either verified removal of the S-400s or a legislative workaround that no administration has so far attempted.

Why European capitals split

Greece and Israel see Turkish F-35s as a direct challenge to the regional military balance. Turkey still maintains its formal war claim over the Aegean. Athens' position is simple: giving the same stealth aircraft to a state that keeps that threat on the table empties the programme of strategic logic. Benjamin Netanyahu applied pressure separately, warning Trump that Turkish F-35s would shift the regional balance (n-tv, ZEIT).

Romania looks at Turkey from the Black Sea, not the Aegean. Bucharest works with Ankara and Sofia on mine countermeasures and the protection of critical infrastructure (Digi24). For Romania, a Turkey tied more tightly to the West means a stronger partner against Russia.

Italy and Spain make the European line harder to draw. Leonardo runs the Cameri F-35 assembly plant in Italy and in June 2025 launched a joint venture with Turkey's Baykar for unmanned systems (Leonardo, Leonardo-Baykar). Those industrial interests give Rome a reason to keep Ankara close. Spain plans to buy Turkish Hurjet trainers (Euronews Spain). Europe's own fifth-generation fighter project, FCAS, the Franco-German-Spanish future combat air system, remains trapped in industrial disputes (El País). Until that programme produces aircraft, European capitals will keep relying on American jets and Turkish defence partnerships to cover gaps.

Who holds the key

Two gates stand between Turkey and the F-35. The White House must certify that the S-400 problem has been solved. Congress can block or slow any sale. Trump controls the first gate, but the harder question is whether Turkey's geography and military weight are enough to justify working around US export-control law. Athens, Jerusalem and 18 members of Congress are betting they are not. Ankara and parts of NATO's eastern flank are betting they are. Until the S-400s physically leave Turkish soil, the lock remains in place.