Turkey Writes Disputed Maritime Claims Into Law as European Powers Sign New Defence Deals

Turkey is moving to turn contested maritime borders in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean into domestic law. For a Mediterranean EU state like Malta, the point is not only the Greek-Turkish dispute. It is how quickly legal claims at sea can become hard security facts when Europe is divided.

The draft "umbrella law" on maritime jurisdiction, expected to reach Turkey's parliament after May 31, codifies the 1995 casus belli threat against any Greek expansion of territorial waters, removes maritime rights from disputed Aegean islands by designating them "grey zones", and gives the Turkish president power to declare "special status" maritime zones without returning to parliament (Ethnos, Protothema). Turkey has never signed UNCLOS, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea that governs maritime borders globally, leaving Brussels without even a common legal text on which to confront Ankara's claims (Libre).

The Defence Bazaar

In the two weeks before that deadline, three of Europe's largest economies deepened their defence ties with Turkey.

Belgium sent a 428-person trade delegation led by Queen Mathilde to Ankara and Istanbul from May 10 to 14. Defence Minister Theo Francken signed nine defence agreements, expressed interest in Turkish drones, and described Turkey as "a role model" for European defence modernisation (Yeni Safak, BusinessAM). Francken also said Belgium supports admitting Turkey into SAFE, the EU's €150 billion Security Action for Europe defence financing scheme. Greece and Cyprus vetoed Turkish participation in SAFE in October 2025. Belgium now wants that decision reversed (Daily Sabah).

France's Safran Electronics signed a strategic partnership with Baykar, Turkey's leading drone manufacturer, on May 12 in Istanbul. The deal replaces Canadian-made sensors on the TB2 drone with French targeting systems, freeing Baykar from Western export restrictions (Opex360). Three weeks earlier, Emmanuel Macron had stood in Athens and described France's mutual defence clause with Greece as "intangible", extending France's nuclear umbrella to Greek territory (Le Figaro). Paris is therefore pledging to defend Greece while supplying technology to the country threatening it.

Germany resumed its Strategic Dialogue with Turkey on May 18, the first such meeting since 2014, while looking at Turkish long-range missiles as a replacement for Tomahawks (KAS). Berlin also backs Turkey's inclusion in SAFE.

Why Europe Cannot Respond

The EU has formal instruments to deal with sovereignty challenges against its own members: a targeted sanctions framework created in 2019, the frozen modernisation of the customs union, and leverage through pre-accession funds. Against Turkey, none of them has much force.

Sanctions require unanimity in the Council, meaning all 27 governments must agree and any single country can block. Hungary has vetoed Turkey-related measures before. Bulgaria and Romania, both dependent on Turkish cooperation in the Black Sea, resist confrontation. The 2016 EU-Turkey migration deal, under which Ankara hosts roughly 3.9 million Syrian refugees, gives Turkey structural leverage over any punitive move. Sanctioning Ankara risks triggering a migration crisis at Europe's south-eastern border (CER, Verfassungsblog).

Greece and Cyprus retain one tool: the veto. They blocked Turkey from SAFE and continue to freeze customs union talks. A veto can deny benefits, but it does not impose costs. Turkey lost SAFE access in October 2025; it has not changed a single maritime claim since.

The coalition trying to reverse that veto is widening. Belgium, Germany, Italy, Spain, Hungary, and Poland all favour Turkish admission to SAFE, presenting it as NATO alliance logic rather than a concession to Ankara. The same countries buying Turkish weapons are pushing to give Turkey access to EU defence money.

The NATO Shield

Athens says Turkey's umbrella law will have "no legal effect" under international law. Greek government spokesperson Pavlos Marinakis called it domestic political theatre (Ethnos). But Turkey is building domestic legal authority for future action in disputed waters, and once the law passes, that authority will not require another parliamentary vote.

The NATO summit in Ankara on July 7 and 8 comes only weeks after the law is expected to pass. No EU member state will want a public confrontation with the host country. Turkey legislates its maritime claims, then hosts the alliance that makes a European response harder. The timing gives Ankara cover.