Zelenskyy rejects Merz’s halfway EU offer

When German Chancellor Friedrich Merz floated a new category of EU "associate membership" for Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed it as "unfair" and insisted Kyiv wants full membership. The dispute is about more than diplomatic wording. Ukraine’s entry would alter the EU’s internal balance of power, and the largest capitals know it.

A Status the Treaties Don't Recognize

Merz’s 18 May letter to EU leaders proposes a status the EU treaties do not currently provide for. "Associate membership" does not appear in the Treaty on European Union.

Under the proposal, Ukraine would get a seat and voting rights in the European Council, where national leaders set the EU’s political direction, and in the Council of the EU, where ministers negotiate legislation. Some reporting has described this as a non-voting arrangement, but Merz’s letter refers to participation with a vote (Reuters, DGAP). Ukraine would also get a European Commissioner without portfolio and associate members in the European Parliament, though with limited influence.

Merz also wants to extend Article 42.7, the EU’s mutual defence clause, which obliges member states to assist another member state if it is attacked. He argues this can be done without treaty change, through "a strong political agreement." Brussels diplomats are not convinced. "I don't see how this could work from a legal point of view. You would need to change the treaties," one told Euronews. The European Commission has avoided taking a legal position, leaving the question to heads of government (Ukrainska Pravda).

Why Full Membership Frightens Paris and Berlin

Full Ukrainian membership would change how the EU works. With around 44 million people, Ukraine would become the bloc’s fifth-largest member state. Under qualified majority voting, a law needs support from 55% of member states representing 65% of the EU population. Ukraine’s weight would therefore shift influence eastwards.

For smaller member states like Malta, this is the machinery that matters. EU politics is not only speeches at summits; it is the arithmetic of votes, blocking minorities, budget shares and who can assemble a coalition when legislation reaches the table. A DGAP analysis found that Germany and France have failed to coordinate their enlargement strategies, and that Ukraine’s accession would weaken the Franco-German bloc’s ability to shape outcomes.

Merz’s proposal would bring part of that shift forward: Ukraine would get a vote in the Council without access to the EU budget, agricultural subsidies or structural funds. An internal Council analysis cited by the Financial Times estimated that full membership would make France a net contributor to the Common Agricultural Policy for the first time (Poland Watch).

French public opinion is the most sceptical in Europe on enlargement. Macron has asked the Commission for a "precise calendar" for Ukraine’s accession, but has made no firm commitment (Le Monde).

The Consolation Prize Zelenskyy Won't Accept

Merz has linked the plan to peace diplomacy. His letter says it "will help facilitate the ongoing peace talks." In April, he suggested Zelenskyy tell Ukrainians: "I opened the way to Europe for you." The offer is meant to serve as compensation, giving Kyiv a European anchor that could help sell territorial concessions in any peace settlement.

Zelenskyy understands the cost. Even with Council voting rights, associate membership would leave Ukraine outside the EU budget and outside the agricultural subsidy system. It would also lack the legal permanence of full treaty-based membership. With Viktor Orbán gone from power in Hungary after the April election, the main veto threat against Ukraine’s accession has been removed. From Kyiv’s perspective, the question is why it should accept a halfway status just as the route to full membership may be opening.

Poland sees Article 42.7 as the real prize: a European defence guarantee that depends less on an unreliable NATO umbrella, as Polish analysts argue. Polish farmers, however, fear competition from Ukrainian agriculture. Slovakia’s Robert Fico rejected the idea outright, saying "Either we admit someone to the EU, or we don't", only weeks after promising Zelenskyy full support for Ukraine’s EU path.

The June European Council does not have enlargement on its formal agenda. The Commission’s pre-enlargement reform package, which is supposed to explain how an EU of more than 30 members would actually function, remains unpublished after repeated delays. Ireland’s foreign minister warned that associate membership "risks leaving Ukraine in limbo."

Zelenskyy’s refusal is a wager that Europe needs Ukraine inside the Union more than Ukraine needs a substitute status outside it. If associate membership becomes comfortable enough for the major capitals, the pressure to complete full accession will weaken. For Kyiv, that comfort is precisely the danger.