Rhine Freight Chokes at Kaub

The Kaub gauge on the Middle Rhine read 11 centimetres on Wednesday (ELWIS, Reuters). The previous record low, set in 2018, was 25 cm.

Kaub matters because it is the Rhine’s pinch point. Barges moving between the North Sea ports and Germany’s industrial core, carrying inputs for chemical plants, steelworks and refineries, must pass this shallow stretch. This week, most through-traffic has effectively stopped.

As we reported earlier (To Brief), the disruption was already squeezing production. It has now moved from expensive to largely unworkable for cargo.

Barges can float but cannot carry

The gauge is not the river’s depth. It measures the water level against a fixed reference mark. When Kaub showed 16 cm last week, the navigable channel still had about 129 cm of water (Tagesschau, Zevener Zeitung).

The commercial problem starts well before a barge scrapes the bottom. Below 40 cm on the gauge, operators say voyages no longer pay because vessels must travel almost empty. There is no formal sailing ban; captains decide whether to proceed (RTL/AFP). Most are deciding not to.

One shipowner told Argus Media that a 1,200-tonne vessel was loaded with just 180 tonnes and took five days, instead of two, to travel from the Rotterdam area to Karlsruhe (Argus). Contargo, Germany’s largest inland container operator, suspended regular services to the southern Rhine and the Rhine-Main region entirely (Arab News/Reuters).

Freight rates from Rotterdam to Karlsruhe have jumped from about €45 per tonne in June to €155–160, with petroleum cargo reaching €200 (France24, Mercopress). That is no longer a transport surcharge at the edge of the invoice. For low-margin cargo such as construction aggregate or animal feed, it can decide whether the shipment moves at all.

300 million tonnes with no easy substitute

The Rhine carries around 300 million tonnes a year: petroleum products, chemicals, iron ore, coal, grain and construction materials (S&P Global, CCNR). One 1,500-tonne barge replaces about 60 trucks (C&EN).

BASF moves 75% of its European raw materials by water to Ludwigshafen, an integrated industrial site where one missing input can stop production further down the chain. The company told customers it could not guarantee delivery of some surfactants after low water disrupted raw-material supply (Insurance Journal).

Transport Minister Steffen Bilger convened a crisis summit and announced Sunday truck-ban exemptions, faster road permits and postponed lock maintenance (Zeit). At least eight German states have eased weekend trucking rules (DW).

The scale does not match the remedy. Industry estimates put the missing capacity at 50–75%, with up to 6 million tonnes a month stranded, roughly 250,000 truckloads (trans.info). EU driving-time rules still apply, so drivers allowed to work on Sunday must rest later in the week. The exemptions shift operating hours around. They do not create drivers, trucks or road space.

The same drought is hitting neighbouring parts of the corridor. Strasbourg port now receives about three barges a day instead of 20. A grain silo there said 70% of its cereals normally leave by water; the grain is now sitting in storage (TF1).

Germany and the Netherlands together handle over 70% of EU inland waterway freight (Eurostat). When this corridor fails, the effect is not confined to German factories. It raises costs for any European manufacturer whose supply chain touches the Rhine, including Maltese importers exposed through German suppliers, fuel markets or industrial inputs routed through northern Europe.

The winners are few and temporary: operators with scarce shallow-draft vessels, and truckers picking up spot work. The losers are spread across chemical plants, fuel distributors and grain handlers whose business models depend on predictable barge transport.

Kiel Institute economist Stefan Kooths estimated that low water could shave 0.1–0.2 percentage points off German economic output in the third quarter (Tagesschau, DW). Nationally, that looks small. Inside particular supply chains, it is concentrated damage. Every workaround, from Sunday trucks to lighter barges and emergency rail slots, reallocates scarce capacity. None of them creates water.